Who is going to fold first?
After another deadlocked day at Westminster the time is running out before the April 12th deadline and if the UK is not to slip out of the EU then without a deal then some grouping has got to change their previously set out strong position.
Let’s start with the EU itself. Will it hold to it’s now extension from the April 12th without a firm plan from the UK or will it actually relent and provide more time for the UK to sort itself out? My guess is that the is still room for manoeuvre there.
Back in the commons the groupings are very firm and very resolved. We know where the ERG group are going to because most seem entirely content and would welcome all the chaos and decline in economic activity a no deal would produce. That they’ll be made scapegoats for the ensuing chaos for years to come doesn’t seem to bother them.
What about the ardent advocates of People’s Vote who have rigidly stuck to their position and voted against all other possibilities? These include the entire TIG, almost all the Lib Dems and a sizeable chunk of Labour MPs. Their hope seems to be that if they stay resolved then TMay’s only option will be a second vote. They seem pretty firm but I just wonder.
This is like a high risk game high stake game of poker when everything depends on who will fold first.
Are we going to see some more Tory MPs get behind Theresa May’s deal assuming she’s able to bring it back to the house yet again? The talk last night was of this been linked to a general election threat though I still can’t see Theresa May really being in a position to enforce that.
My guess is that the EU will grant more time and which inevitably leads to UK participation in the Euro elections next month.