5/4 CON 36/1 DUP 32/1 GREEN 23/20 LAB 71/5 LD 32/1 PC 20/1 SNP 68/1 Sinn Fein I have just made an awful cockup and misread the name of the market. This is about from which party will the next defector to TIG come. Apologies. Still I think my initial reading of what the market was is a good idea for a bet. I’ve just come across this intriguing market from Smarkets on what will be the party of the…
As if the people aren’t confused enough as it is It has just been reported that the new party, change UK, has had its party logo rejected by the Electoral Commission on the grounds that it could “mislead voters”. Apparently the emblem was a black square with the initials TIG and the hashtag “#change”. Apparently the Commission took the view that the new party’s chosen emblem was not sufficiently well known. But Change UK should be registered in time to…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange But will the bubble burst? One of the quite extraordinary features of the fight for the Democratic nomination to take on Donald Trump has been the rise and rise of a 37 year old Harvard graduate and Afghanistan veteran from South Bend Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, who’s now moved to third in the betting behind Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris. He’s currently Mayor of his home city. This followed his formal entry into…
To win the Conservative leadership – and quite probably the office of Prime Minister – the successful candidate is assumed to need three things. 1) Sufficient support to get into the final two A third of MPs (105) would guarantee this. In practice around 80-90 is likely to be enough, but going into the final two a long way behind, as Andrea Leadsom did (199 – 84) could prove a problem. Ideally a candidate would be able to reach across…
On Betfair both CON & LAB are 47% chances to win most seats This does not happen very often but we are in a phase where the betting markets are out of line with the polls when it comes to the next general election. As the heading suggests CON & LAB running neck and neck when it comes to most seats. The polling, as we know, has been dire for the blue team in the last week or so and…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The betting chances of GE2019 drop 20% in just 14 days It was exactly two years ago that we were told that the PM would be making a statement in Downing Street. All sort of rumours were triggered and it was only when the lectern was moved into the street that people started guessing that she was about to go to the country. The giveaway was that the PM’s crest was not…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwkmtuz6q2g Assange’s arrest – his white beard, wink and ponytail giving him a very woke mixture of metrosexual man, cheeky rebel and Russian dissident – is the latest scene in a life made for film. Now, following a spell at Her Majesty’s pleasure (her prisons, in NI anyway, used to faeces-smearing prisoners unlike the bemused Ecuadorians bulk-buying extra-strong Cilit Bang) he faces the possibility of extradition to Sweden or the US to face charges of sexual assault and conspiracy to hack…
The YouGov poll published yesterday showed the Conservatives polling 16% in the European election, Opinium had the Conservatives on 17% so it is worth analysing this market from Ladbrokes on what vote share the Conservatives will achieve. I’ll explain why I think the 12/1 is the best option. I) A polarised electorate and polarising election. This election will be seen as a de facto referendum on Brexit, Remainers and Leavers will want to utilise their vote to send a message on Brexit….