68/1 Sinn Fein
I have just made an awful cockup and misread the name of the market. This is about from which party will the next defector to TIG come.
Still I think my initial reading of what the market was is a good idea for a bet.
I’ve just come across this intriguing market from Smarkets on what will be the party of the next MP . The options listed on OddsChecker are featured above. Note that UKIP, the Brexit Party nor Change UK are NOT on the list. Working this one out you have to think where is the next vacancy going to occur and which party is most likely to win it. A fortnight tomorrow evening we should get the outcome of the recall petition in Peterborough. If 10% of the voters there have supported the recall move that would trigger a by-election. If that is the case then it is hard to see it being other than a LAB versus CON dogfight. This is a seat that flips between the two main parties and was taken by LAB at GE17. My guess, given the blue team’s dismal polling position at the moment, that this will be a LAB hold. Of course it is always possible that a vacancy could happen at any time but Peterborough is the one where at least a process is in place.