The extent to which the Euro elections can be treated as a referendum depends on whether the outcome supports your side

The extent to which the Euro elections can be treated as a referendum depends on whether the outcome supports your side

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Get ready on the evening of Sunday May 26th, when the euro elections results are announced, for the production of aggregates of the votes of the pro brexit and pro remain parties and and whoever has “won” trying argue that this is a mini referendum. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one or more of the TV results programmes creates live graphics so we can see how it is going as the numbers come in. Clearly this is a…

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Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

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Memo to Conservative Party: Since March 29th you've averaged just 32.6%This is Michael Howard 2005 territoryYou've lost 9 pts in a yearYou're losing Leavers; support down 12 points in 5 monthsUKIP+Brexit Party have doubled in 3 months to 11% These numbers = PM Jeremy Corbyn — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 15, 2019 Alice was introduced to the concept of an unbirthday party at the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party. By close analogy, let me introduce you to the concept of an…

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REWRITE: What will be the party of the next MP to join TIG

REWRITE: What will be the party of the next MP to join TIG

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5/4 CON 36/1 DUP 32/1 GREEN 23/20 LAB 71/5 LD 32/1 PC 20/1 SNP 68/1 Sinn Fein I have just made an awful cockup and misread the name of the market. This is about from which party will the next defector to TIG come. Apologies. Still I think my initial reading of what the market was is a good idea for a bet. I’ve just come across this intriguing market from Smarkets on what will be the party of the…

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Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead of the possible May Euro elections

Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead of the possible May Euro elections

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As if the people aren’t confused enough as it is It has just been reported that the new party, change UK, has had its party logo rejected by the Electoral Commission on the grounds that it could “mislead voters”. Apparently the emblem was a black square with the initials TIG and the hashtag “#change”.  Apparently the Commission took the view that the new party’s chosen emblem was not sufficiently well known. But Change UK should be registered in time to…

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In the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination 37 year old Mayor Pete moves to 3rd in the betting

In the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination 37 year old Mayor Pete moves to 3rd in the betting

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange But will the bubble burst? One of the quite extraordinary features of the fight for the Democratic nomination to take on Donald Trump has been the rise and rise of a 37 year old Harvard graduate and Afghanistan veteran from South Bend Indiana, Pete Buttigieg,  who’s now moved to third in the betting behind Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris. He’s currently Mayor of his home city. This followed his formal entry into…

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The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?

The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?

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To win the Conservative leadership – and quite probably the office of Prime Minister – the successful candidate is assumed to need three things. 1) Sufficient support to get into the final two A third of MPs (105) would guarantee this. In practice around 80-90 is likely to be enough, but going into the final two a long way behind, as Andrea Leadsom did (199 – 84) could prove a problem. Ideally a candidate would be able to reach across…

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LAB might have leads of upto 9% in the polls but punters still make it neck and neck for the next general election

LAB might have leads of upto 9% in the polls but punters still make it neck and neck for the next general election

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On Betfair both CON & LAB are 47% chances to win most seats This does not happen very often but we are in a phase where the betting markets are out of line with the polls when it comes to the next general election. As the heading suggests CON & LAB running neck and neck when it comes to most seats. The polling, as we know, has been dire for the blue team in the last week or so and…

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On the 2nd anniversary of TMay calling GE2017 fewer are predicting an early election now

On the 2nd anniversary of TMay calling GE2017 fewer are predicting an early election now

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The betting chances of GE2019 drop 20% in just 14 days It was exactly two years ago that we were told that the PM would be making a statement in Downing Street. All sort of rumours were triggered and it was only when the lectern was moved into the street that people started guessing that she was about to go to the country. The giveaway was that the PM’s crest was not…

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