On Euro election day it looks as though it is all over for the woman whose only crime was to try to implement the referendum without damaging the economy

On Euro election day it looks as though it is all over for the woman whose only crime was to try to implement the referendum without damaging the economy

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With parts of her cabinet now in open revolt it is hard to see how even TMay can now survive.  Today being election day at least gives her breathing space ahead of what has appeared likely for some time. The Tory obsession with Europe is devouring another leader. In many ways it would have been better for the party if the July 2016 leadership election had resulted in a leaver taking over the helm of the party though no doubt…

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The final Euros polls show a picture that is far from clear

The final Euros polls show a picture that is far from clear

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LAB between 25% or just 13% and BRX ranges from 27% to 37% The final polls on the eve of the 2019 Euros look very confusing and it is hard to find a clear picture. The Tories range from 7%  to 14% while the LDs are polling between 12% and 19%. Only one on the list had any fieldwork taking place today the rest were all closed yesterday thus not picking up any late swing which we know can happen…

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A 2019 general election moves up in the betting as the pressure mounts on TMay

A 2019 general election moves up in the betting as the pressure mounts on TMay

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange One of the big political betting movements this afternoon has been on the timing of the next general election as can been from the chart. As far as I can see the reasoning is that TMay’s time at Number 10 is moving to a conclusion with much talk of a leadership contest before the summer break. The only problem is that a new PM and leader would face exactly the same challenges…

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The top pollster from the 2014 Euros now has LAB in third place six points behind the LDs

The top pollster from the 2014 Euros now has LAB in third place six points behind the LDs

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“Bollocks to Brexit” not harming the LDs Throughout the Euros campaign one pollster has been producing very different numbers from just about everybody else. That is YouGov which in its survey for the Times this morning finds that the Brexit party is on 37% with the Lib Dems on 19 and labour six points behind that on 13. Almost all the other firms have LAB maintaining a second place position and lower numbers for TBP. It is highly likely we…

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The bets continue to pile on BoJo for next CON leader and PM

The bets continue to pile on BoJo for next CON leader and PM

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Although the timing of Theresa May’s departure as prime minister and CON leader has yet to be confirmed there’s little doubt that we are very close to a party leadership election which will be unique. For the first time party members will be deciding on who should be the next Prime Minister. It should be recalled that previous CON leadership contests which have gone to the membership have been whilst the party…

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Food for thought for would-be defectors to the Brexit Party

Food for thought for would-be defectors to the Brexit Party

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Mike Greene, the Brexit Party candidate for the Peterborough by-election, reportedly met Nigel Farage for the first time the night before he was unveiled as the new party’s representative. You have to hope that he does better due diligence on the companies he invests in. For Nigel Farage is not the easiest man to work for.He has a very long-established habit of falling out with those around him. His history of leading UKIP was one of nonstop rows with senior…

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There could be hope for CHUK yet because of being top of the ballot

There could be hope for CHUK yet because of being top of the ballot

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Never ignore the alphabetical bonus of being top Above is a photograph of my ballot paper in Eastern region for Thursday’s election and looking at it there are some issues that might help or hinder the various parties. I was with some old election hands in the pub at the weekend and we were discussing how ballot form order and and placing can actually have an impact on the final result. At the locals earlier in the month where I…

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Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

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2014 Euros polling – Wikipedia The others overstated UKIP lead by upto 7% With polls coming thick and fast at the moment the one big trend is that YouGov has been showing markedly better numbers for TBP and the LDs than just about all the others. At times like this it is useful to look at the record and what happened last time. The table above shows how well YouGov did in 2014 compared with the other firms and overstated…

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