The money goes on a 78 year old to take on a 74 year old at WH2020

The money goes on a 78 year old to take on a 74 year old at WH2020

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange I remain to be convinced by Biden With interest in Brexit itself having subsided for the moment and with the Euro elections not taking place for another three weeks the top betting markets, in terms of volume, at the moment are on the 2020 White House Race. The big question is who will the Democrats choose to take on Trump? Last week the former Obama vice president, Joe Biden, put his hat…

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On the eve of LE2019 Corbyn’s LAB appears as totally divided as TMay’s Tories

On the eve of LE2019 Corbyn’s LAB appears as totally divided as TMay’s Tories

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https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1123357647573520385 How’s this going to play out tomorrow? The Tweet above might or might not be accurate but it comes at a very tricky time on the eve of this years locals. Because this years elections do not include London it has attracted for less media coverage than you’d expect. This is not unusual. The political media is based at Westminster and is very London-centric. Generally the pattern has been that the timing of the locals are put back in…

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Why it’s going to be harder than many think to view the Euros as a 2nd Brexit referendum

Why it’s going to be harder than many think to view the Euros as a 2nd Brexit referendum

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There’s widespread confusion on where each party stands The above chart is from some new polling issued by YouGov this morning which tries to find out how voters view each party’s stance on brexit. Apart from Farage’s Brexit party some of the answers are quite extraordinary and suggest that the parties are not getting over their positions as strongly as they might be. Taking the Tories first just 37% of those polled thought it was Pro brexit with 24% being…

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Tomorrow at 1800 the Peterborough recall petition closes and the count takes place that evening

Tomorrow at 1800 the Peterborough recall petition closes and the count takes place that evening

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The parties are on standby for a by-election After what seems to be inordinately long period of time the Peterborough recall petition is drawing to a close and tomorrow night Fiona Onasanya will learn whether she can continue as an MP or not. Even if 6,967 (10% of the electorate) have signed that would not be the end of the matter for Onasanya. She would be able to stand in the ensuing by-election though not for Labour. While this has…

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The betting moves against Mayor Pete following accusations of sexual assault

The betting moves against Mayor Pete following accusations of sexual assault

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BREAKING: Media Darling Buttigieg Accused of Sexual Assault https://t.co/JDWZx8qmsf — Big League Politics (@bigleaguepol) April 29, 2019 Whatever the veracity his betting odds are going to move out Given the extraordinary media coverage that Mayor Pete has been getting I had been sort of expecting something like the above Tweet to emerge. Whatever the truth of these allegations I don’t know but it it is part and parcel of political campaigns that things like this do happen. My guess is…

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The threat of Corbyn becoming PM is irrelevant unless LAB backs a second referendum

The threat of Corbyn becoming PM is irrelevant unless LAB backs a second referendum

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There has to be a general election first and that means retaining remain support Lots of discussion ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of Labours National Executive Committee which will decide on the party’s policy on Brexit for the May 23rd euro elections. The big question is whether a referendum will be offered and under what terms. So far the leadership has managed skillfully to bypass this by mentioning a second referendum almost as a footnote in policy statements. That would need…

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Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling

Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling

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There were a LOT of polls, including my own, that failed to notice. 2/? — Martin Boon (@martinboon) April 26, 2019 How much can we rely on polling for the Euros? The above was the start of a Twitter thread over the weekend from Martin Boon who has been a major figure in he British polling industry for several decades. He was with ICM and is now part of DeltaPoll. His Tweets raised questions on the mechanics of polling which…

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