The money goes on a 78 year old to take on a 74 year old at WH2020

The money goes on a 78 year old to take on a 74 year old at WH2020 chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

I remain to be convinced by Biden

With interest in Brexit itself having subsided for the moment and with the Euro elections not taking place for another three weeks the top betting markets, in terms of volume, at the moment are on the 2020 White House Race. The big question is who will the Democrats choose to take on Trump?

Last week the former Obama vice president, Joe Biden, put his hat into the ring and the early polling has suggested that this has been very well received. He’s now leading by a substantial margin in most polls of likely Democrat participants in the coming primaries.

Next month we see the almost formal start of the race with the first of the TV debates between the contenders. A big hurdle for some of the declared contenders will be meeting the fundraising threshold to be allowed to participate.

Biden was Obama’s vice president for 8 years but has a record of failing in several previous bids for the White House. Last time out in 2008 he dropped to 4% in Iowa which is the first State to decide through its caucuses. He was then of course 12 Years Younger.

As someone who was born on within 3 weeks of Donald Trump I feel I can make what some might see as an ageist comment. I do not believe that someone in the late 70s, (Biden will be 78 in November 2020) is going to be able to cope with the pressure of trying to win the nomination and then the White House for the first time never mind actually governing.

The other contender who was seen some upwards movement is Senator Elizabeth Warren who has been running a policy rich campaign which has attracted a lot of attention. Her promise to cut College fee debt sounds a bit similar to the LAB promise at the 2000 General Election to abolish student fees. Will that work? I don’t know but it has certainly put her on the map more than she was.

Mike Smithson


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