How the final polls did against the actual results – party by party

How the final polls did against the actual results – party by party

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As can be seen from the charts above the biggest problem the pollsters had was with LAB which had a huge range in the final polls. Partly, I suspect, this was that Labour supporters had not finalised their decision to vote tactically when they were being questioned. It is well know that a significant proportion of voters really don’t make their minds up until the last moment. This is why Ipsos MORI generally try to ensure that its final poll…

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The overnight figures don’t look good for many of the pollsters

The overnight figures don’t look good for many of the pollsters

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BBC We’ve now got all the regional results in England and Wales with Scotland to be finalised and the Northern Ireland county to take place in the morning. The numbers in the BBC table above speak for themselves. In a later post we’ll look in detail at how the final polls did against the outcome but it is clear that those pollsters that had LAB in the low or mid-20s haven’t come out of this well. Now I must work…

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The Tories get wiped out in the East Midlands, Yorkshire & The Humber, The South West, and Wales

The Tories get wiped out in the East Midlands, Yorkshire & The Humber, The South West, and Wales

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EAST MIDLANDS DECLARED Results so far: BXP: 21 (+21)LDM: 10 (+10)LAB: 7 (-6)GRN: 5 (+2)CON: 2 (-12)PLC: 1 (=)UKIP: 0 (-15) Changes w/ 2014 #EP2019 pic.twitter.com/NDcG4XlFiy — Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) May 26, 2019 South West, vote share: Brex: 36.7% (+36.7)LDem: 23.1% (+12.4)Grn: 18.1% (+7.0)Con: 8.7% (-20.2)Lab: 6.5% (-7.2)UKIP: 3.2% (-29.1)ChUK: 2.8% (+2.8) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 26, 2019 Yorkshire & Humber, vote share: Brex: 36.5% (+36.5)Lab: 16.3% (-13.0)LDem: 15.5% (+9.2)Grn: 13.0% (+5.1)Con: 7.2% (-12.0)UKIP: 4.4% (-26.7)York: 3.9% (+2.4)ChUK:…

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The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet on the Lib Dems winning London

The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet on the Lib Dems winning London

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East of England, vote share: Brex: 37.8% (+37.8)LDem: 22.6% (+15.7)Grn: 12.7% (+4.2)Con: 10.2% (-18.2)Lab: 8.7% (-8.6)ChUK: 3.7% (+3.7)UKIP: 3.4% (-31.1) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 26, 2019 There are just over 100,000 Labour Party members in London, which is 20% of Labour’s total London vote. pic.twitter.com/PWEtJI72hC — Tom Hamilton (@thhamilton) May 26, 2019 Lib Dems get a huge symbolic win in Corbyn's Islington https://t.co/d9Djsm968N — Adam Payne (@adampayne26) May 26, 2019 The Conservatives are on course to win their lowest…

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Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

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D'Hondt rush to judgment on the Euros results. You shouldn't read too much into an election with a turnout of circa 40%. Plus votes rather than seats matter in the grand scheme of things, especially under D'Hondt. — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 26, 2019 Early days. But these results are turning into Corbyn's biggest nightmare. Northern Labour voters turning to Brexit Party. London and Southern Labour voters turning to Lib Dems. By appealing to everyone he's appealed to no-one. — (((Dan…

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Maastricht Redux

Maastricht Redux

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Once upon a time there was a stubborn female PM annoying the hell out of her colleagues. A junior Minister was even overheard calling her “a cow” and wishing she would resign. She was determinedly pursuing and arguing for an initially popular pledge – abolition of the rates – by means of a ferociously unpopular policy: the poll tax. No-one was convinced. Tory MPs looked nervously at their majorities, their annoyed constituents and wondered why she would not listen. A…

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Remembering the time Boris Johnson implied Tory defectors to Farage’s party are the kind of people who have sex with vacuum cleaners

Remembering the time Boris Johnson implied Tory defectors to Farage’s party are the kind of people who have sex with vacuum cleaners

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If as anticipated the Brexit party wins the European elections well ahead of the Conservatives then I expect the discussion will move towards who will be best placed to win the support of the Brexit Party’s voters and many will say Boris Johnson but that will be a mistake, here’s why. Nigel Farage would ruthlessly exploit the past comments of Boris, for example the pre referendum comments by Boris Johnson about ‘support[ing] a second referendum on Britain’s relationship with the…

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Tory MP declarations of leadership contest support should be treated with a huge pinch of salt

Tory MP declarations of leadership contest support should be treated with a huge pinch of salt

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange In 2005 DDavis had more public MPs supporters than actual voters Just a day after Theresa May’s announcement that she is stepping down as CON leader and prime minister and even though it is a bank holiday weekend the fight for the succession has begun. The first stage is the MP ballots to decide which two names will actually go to the membership in the postal election. Ahead of these we get…

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