The Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at the local election results and look at what the EU election polling tells us about what is to come. Listen to the podcast here: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet
Given the precarious a position TMay is in at the moment we have to assume that we are fairly close to a CON leadership contest when the membership will choose not just a new party leader but of course the next PM. Last week Rory Stewart announced that he would contest the leadership once a vacancy occurs and today another prominent figure, Esther McVey, has declared that she too will be amongst the contenders. The former TV presenter, now MP…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Leaving in the July-Dec 2019 period remains favourite but only a 38% one With two weeks to go before the Euro elections I thought it useful to look at the betting on where Brexit stands at and the market featured is on when it will happen if at all. This might be wishful thinking on the part of those who wish Brexit won’t ever happen but the betting price on the Brexit…
Whenever her detractors think she’s in a corner she always manages to play for time So another day and another key confrontation for TMay over when she is going to finally step down as CON leader and Prime Minister. Like all others such key moments, it seems, she has found a way to get a key decision deferred till next week or the week after with the result that the pressure for now is offloaded. This is wonderful to watch….
It is hard to recall now but a couple of months ago when the first betting markets were opened on what then seemed a only possible set of Euro elections in the UK LAB was made the odds-on favourites with the Brexit party on 4/1. Well that has all changed and it is hard to see anything other than Farage’s party heading for a notable victory on May 23rd. But which party will be in second place? On the face…
Quick response to what happened in local elections. There are now few safe seats for Tories. Lib Dem’s competing in shires, Labour in urban south. These results mean two things: Labour will come first in the next general election, & the Tories face huge crisis. > pic.twitter.com/k6HkO3zY5N — Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) May 4, 2019 I’ve left the Labour Party after nearly 45 years of service at Branch, Constituency and NEC levels,partly because of it’s continued duplicity on Brexit, partly because…
I’ve just come across an article by Mike Hume on Spiked online that argues that Brexit was the main reason why the Tories and LAB did badly in the local elections last Thursday. But the same article goes on to argue by implication that this effect did not help the Lib Dems and the Greens, both strong pro-remain parties, to achieve all their gains. I’d respectively suggest to Mr Hume that you can’t have one without the other. This is…
Telegraph 2009 How he was viewed when he became the Penrith PPC? A recent big mover in the next CON leader betting is Rory Stewart who last week got into the cabinet following the sacking of Gavin Williamson. Over the weekend he announced that he would seek the leadership when TMay finally steps aside and he’s moved to the fifth favourite slot. By any standard he’s got an extraordinary CV doing much more than going to Eton followed by Oxford…