Nigel Farage reportedly looking to do Corbyn’s dirty work and help Labour gain Boris Johnson’s seat

Nigel Farage reportedly looking to do Corbyn’s dirty work and help Labour gain Boris Johnson’s seat

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This week’s Spectator reports that Rumours are circulating that Farage’s aim is to destroy the leader he fears most: Boris Johnson. This is more doable than it might sound. The former foreign secretary holds a 5,000 majority in Uxbridge —respectable, but not a lifetime guarantee, given the volatility of contemporary politics and London’s drift away from the Tories. Word is that Farage is considering standing against Boris in the next general election. He’d lose. But he might take Johnson down…

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New Rules. Britain’s changing constitution

New Rules. Britain’s changing constitution

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Sometimes it only takes a small change to alter the shape of things radically.  In Backroom Boys by Francis Spufford, the developers of the 80s computer game Elite explained that the introduction of a scoop for a tiny dollop of memory transformed the possibilities, allowing players to become pirates as well as traders. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 is a similarly small change and similarly it allows MPs to play as pirates as well as traders. The Act transferred…

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TMay to still be PM and the UK still in the EU at the end of the year?

TMay to still be PM and the UK still in the EU at the end of the year?

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I don't bet on politics, but colleague has refused to take 50p on UK to be in EU and May to be PM at the end of this year — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) May 2, 2019 I asked Ladbrokes to quote odds and they said 6/1 This Tweet from the Indy’s John Rentoul appeared on election day and I’ve been musing over it ever since. Could at the end of the year the UK still be in the EU and…

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The locals – how the forecasters did

The locals – how the forecasters did

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The actual was CON -1334, LAB -83, LD +703 The above table was produced by Oxford Professor, Stephen Fisher, and published on his site on the day before the locals. Now we know the results it’s very useful to see how conventional forecasting methods compared against what actually happened and is a good reference for the future. The first two columns are by Stephen Fisher himself. It should be noted that Steven is one of the country’s leading political scientists…

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A big loser from the locals is Change UK who decided to sit these elections out

A big loser from the locals is Change UK who decided to sit these elections out

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It’ll be the LDs who’ll find it easier to present themselves as the voice of Remain The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush’s analysis sums up the post-local elections challenge for ChangeUK which, of course, did not participate yesterday. “….the reality is that if any party can now pivot to being the natural choice for Remainers who want to send a message at the European elections on 23 May, it is going to be the Liberal Democrats. What they need to do…

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The Tories and LDs doing better than the polls on the Projected National Vote Share

The Tories and LDs doing better than the polls on the Projected National Vote Share

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BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) for the 2019 local elections:Con 28Lab 28LD 19Others 25 Only the second time all parties under 30%. Best Lib Dem share since 2010. pic.twitter.com/YINiVH3L8G — Steve Fisher (@StephenDFisher) May 3, 2019 Latest BBC Scorecard pic.twitter.com/Faq93AQEDB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2019 Corbyn’s LAB doing worse than EdM’s party four years ago The local results are coming in thick and fast and the LDs have just ABOUT achieved the 500 gain projection…

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The LDs – putting the coalition years behind them

The LDs – putting the coalition years behind them

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The counts start this morning in thousands of more seats In many ways this is all going to what had been expected. Rallings and Thrasher had predicted 400 LD gains while Tory elections expert, Lord Hayward, had put it at 500. We’ll have to see how this goes. A key measure will be the national equivalent vote share projection which will probably come out in the coming days. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

LDs the main gainers but there are a lot more results to come

LDs the main gainers but there are a lot more results to come

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Latest BBC scorecard pic.twitter.com/oteY2GR3QP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2019 Because the majority of results will be not Known until perhaps mid-afternoon it is hard to draw conclusions so far on this year’s local election results. The councils that have counted overnight have been more in the north of England where Labour has been struggling more than in the south. The Lib Dems have been making a number of gains but their best prospects will be in the councils…

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