TMay to still be PM and the UK still in the EU at the end of the year?

TMay to still be PM and the UK still in the EU at the end of the year?

I asked Ladbrokes to quote odds and they said 6/1

This Tweet from the Indy’s John Rentoul appeared on election day and I’ve been musing over it ever since. Could at the end of the year the UK still be in the EU and TMay be hanging in there still as PM?

I can see Rentoul’s argument about the former. Unless there is a general election we will arrive at the next Brexit deadline of October 31st with the parliamentary situation very much as it is at the moment. As long as the ERG hardliners and the People’s Vote fundamentalists¬† remain firm in their conviction then the fundamentals won’t have changed and the UK will have to ask for a further extension.

Maybe, just maybe, you could see a new referendum becoming a way out.

As to TMay’s exit what keeps her there is the Uxbridge MP who Tweeted that he’d voted on Thursday when no elections had taken place where he lives. As long as Johnson remains the likely successor then CON MPs will be reluctant to create a vacancy. Of course in December¬† the 12 month immunity from a further no confidence challenge will expire and you could see another vote taking place. But even if she lost that there isn’t the time to complete a leadership contest before the end of the year.On Betfair is is an 83% chance that she’ll go in 2019

On Betfair it is a 37% chance that the UK will leave the EU in the second half of 2019 with the period until the end of June a 13% chance.

Of course it is just possible that a deal will be agreed with Corbyn that allows this to happen fast and that could still prevent the May 23rd Euro elections.

Mike Smithson


 

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