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The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in the lead

2/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

In the past couple of days there have been three Westminster voting intention polls from different firms each with a different party in the lead. This is unprecedented. Here's Deltapoll https://t.co/nsMGtujNI8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2019 Opinium has BXP ahead with the LDs in 4th. In its final Euros poll Opinium had the highest rating of any firm for BXP – 38% against the 31% that they actually got. It had the LDs on 15% 5 below the…

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The Saturday evening open thread

1/6/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHbVVGPFvio Video – The highlights of the greatest comeback since Lazarus Tonight’s Champions League final and Mike’s holiday means PB isn’t going to edited in the usual way this weekend, so it’ll feature open threads like this and threads written well in advance. So if any major does happen this weekend, I’m not ignoring I’ll eventually cover it. If we get any polls this weekend it’ll be interesting to see if they match the pattern of YouGov with the Lib…

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The Tory race is crowded but there is value there

1/6/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Even after the recent lengthening of his odds, Boris is still over-fancied When a dozen candidates declare their candidacy for a party leadership, it’s not a sign of strength. Certainly, it’s entirely possible to go too far the other way and allow a flawed but dominant candidate in by default, but an excess of candidates points to a lack of confidence in the leading runners among the second string. There are, of course, other reasons why also-rans might give the…

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Paging all Brexiteers who hate American Presidents interfering in UK politics

31/5/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

World exclusive: Trump backs Boris to be Britain’s next PM with highly controversial intervention into Tory contest. "I know the different players. But I think Boris would do a very good job. He would be excellent”.https://t.co/Qt0zjwwePJ — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) May 31, 2019 I’m not sure being Donald Trump’s preferred choice as Prime Minister will ultimately help Boris Johnson. TSE

Corbyn, May and the death of British compromise

31/5/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

We like to think of ourselves as a temperamentally moderate country, eager to split any difference, respect other viewpoints, find the middle ground. But the sobering lesson from the European election is that – on this issue, at least, we really are not. There are basically three options open to us. We can opt for a hard Brexit. That got 34.0% of the vote (Brexit+UKIP). We can opt to stay in the EU after all. That got 34.9% of the…

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For the first time ever neither LAB nor CON occupy the top two slots in a national Westminster voting intention poll

31/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

LD 24% BXP 22% LAB 19% CON 19% As had been leaked earlier yesterday evening the latest Times YouGov poll has historic changes in the party order with the Lib Dems on 24% two points ahead of BXP with Labour and the Tories both on 19%. This has simply not happened before in the history of polling. It is totally unprecedented for neither of the two major parties currently forming the government and the opposition to perform so poorly. Clearly…

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YouGov LAB party members polling finds that just 45% backed the party last Thursday

30/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Question for ?@UKLabour? – are you planning on expelling nearly half the membership? pic.twitter.com/I3z6ZOpF59 — Marcus A. Roberts (@marcusaroberts) May 30, 2019 Putting Alastair Campbell into context I find the above polling of LAB ,members really quite remarkable and shows the huge difficulty the leadership has pursuing its Brexit agenda which is alien to a large part of the membership base. That in a major election fewer than half the membership voted for the party says an enormous amount about…

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At least TMay and Jezza have one record they can claim

30/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

In terms of their Ipsos MORI leader satisfactions ratings TMay and Corbyn are now the most unpopular PM and opposition leader duo of all time with an aggregate net negative of -96. They beat the 1981 Thatcher/Foot negative of -89 https://t.co/crypWDGP8i via @Telegraph — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 30, 2019 The Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings have been carried out in the same manner since the 1970s with the question being put in the same way over the decades. It is…

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