From Betdata.io chart of Betfair market Aside from the Euro elections next week the other big UK political betting market which has seen a lot of activity is on the date when TMay will finally step aside. After the local elections two weeks ago and the impending disaster for her party a week on Thursday this surely will be the moment when she finally runs out of time. Yet will she? One thing we know is that she isn’t going…
So how's that fence-sitting playing out in London, Mr Corbyn?Well, according to @youGov/@QMUL poll, if there was a general election tomorrow, Londoners would vote: L 35 (down from 49 in December)C23 (33)LD 21 (11)G 7 (3)Brexit 10 (Ukip was 3 in Dec) A beating for Lab & Con — Joe Murphy (@JoeMurphyLondon) May 13, 2019 New London poll finds BRX/LD/GRN rising while the big two slump We are now getting to the stage ahead of the Euro elections next week…
And the last three years could have been very different With the pressure ratcheting up in the Tory party against TMay it is perhaps worth recalling how she got the job in the first place in July 2016. Boris was the longstanding favourite but pulled out following Michael Gove’s surprise entry into the race. In the MP balloting TMay came top with Andrea Leadsom second. So Leadsom and Theresa May were two names that were to go to the membership. But…
Quite the story in today's Sunday Times. Steve Baker is 200/1 with BetFred and 150/1 with Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, and SkyBet to succeed Mrs May as next PM. I've decided to back him. Angels and ministers of grace defend us! https://t.co/TFWXzA7eG6 pic.twitter.com/olHIbFk4TD — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 12, 2019 If Steve Baker stands he could damage the chances of a Leaver winning or he might just win My view is that if the Tory Leavers want to ensure of their own succeeds…
Expectations management or are the Conservatives really going to finish sixth in the European elections?https://t.co/HmZfRgv4yd — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 11, 2019 Why David Cameron & Theresa May might soon be seen as the modern day H.H. Asquith & David Lloyd George My first instinct to the Guardian story was this is expectations management by the Conservatives, I mean really the Conservatives finishing sixth in a nationwide election? But then I realised the evidence being used here were the arguments I…
The blues down to 22% with Opininum WM poll Latest Westminster polling numbers from @OpiniumResearch sees the Tories down to just 22%. BREX now in third place just one point behindLAB 28 (-5)CON 22 (-4)BREX 21 (+4)LD 11 (+5) UKIP 4CHUK 4 , — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2019 And for the Euros TMay’s party down to 11% below the LDs New @OpiniumResearch Euro poll has CON slipping into FOURTH placeBREX 34%LAB 21% LD 12% CON 11%GRN 8% UKIP…
Their muddled thinking has killed their project To be wrong once is inevitable, to be wrong twice is unfortunate, to be wrong three times is careless, but to be wrong as many times as Change UK have been is to show all the tactical and strategic awareness of a garden leaf trying to outwit a playful cat. It’s not merely that they keep losing the game; it’s not even that they don’t seem to know how the game’s played; it’s…
Wikipedia Over the last couple of days there been the first post local elections polls on the May 23rd Euro elections. As can be seen in the Wikipedia table the Brexit party is staying pretty stable in pole position with the Labour Party about 3% behind and the Tories much further down. In fact the latest Opinium poll has the Tories on 14% with the Lib Dems up 5 on 12%. It was always going to be, though, that the…