Following the firmer news on TMay’s exit Johnson declares that he’s running and moves to a 27% favourite in the betting

Following the firmer news on TMay’s exit Johnson declares that he’s running and moves to a 27% favourite in the betting

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange So the CON backbenchers who have been unhappy with Mrs May’s handling of the brexit process have sort of got their way and there is agreed process for how she will go and when. The 1922 Chair Graham Brady summed up things like this:- “We have agreed to meet to decide the timetable for the election of a new leader of the Conservative party as soon as the second reading has occurred…

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The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

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What is very marked is the high level of variation between the firm’s most recent surveys. Change UK are recorded as being in a range of 2-6% The Brexit Party from 26% to 34% LDs from 11% to 19% GRN from 6% to 11% The Tories are in a much narrower range of 10% to 15%. The possibly outlying figures from BMG might be down to the fact that in its poll the Euros voting intention was put first. With…

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The Conservative party sweepstake

The Conservative party sweepstake

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The last rites have not yet been spoken and already the heirs are gathered around the deathbed and stripping the rings off Theresa May’s fingers. The collective assumption of most Conservative MPs, which may yet be wrong, is that the Conservative role of party leader is shortly to fall vacant. Who might her replacement be? For all the difficulties that the role has, there is no shortage of volunteers. Many Conservative MPs look in the mirror, straighten themselves up, comb…

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If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

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Dealing with turnout is very challenging One of the common criticisms of pollsters in recent years is that they have a tendency to herd particularly as we get closer to elections. Well for sure that’s one thing that isn’t happening this time. With just a week and one day to go the above chart shows the Brexit party lead in the most recent polls and as can be seen there is a huge gap between the figures from YouGov and…

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It’s now just possible to contemplate that my 32p Euros bet at 990/1 might just be a winner

It’s now just possible to contemplate that my 32p Euros bet at 990/1 might just be a winner

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BMG Euros poll for the Indy hasBXP 26%LAB 22%LD 19%CON 12%GRN 10%CUK 3%So the LDs just 7 points behind BXP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2019 Just before the local elections I offered political punters on the Betfair exchange Euro election that I’d bet £2 on the LDs at 990 to win most seats in the Euros. This was pure speculation and something I often do. Normally there are no takers but in this came someone came forward and…

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What happens to CHUK if it fails to win more a couple of MEPs a week on Thursday?

What happens to CHUK if it fails to win more a couple of MEPs a week on Thursday?

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If it can’t make progress under Euro elections voting system then its surely doomed I have just received my freepost delivery of the CHUK Euros leaflet and I reproduce the pages that have words on it above. I’m sure many PBers will have seen it as well. What is striking is how weak the leaflet with hardly any effort to try to persuade people to vote. Is it it is almost as if it has given up already. The freepost…

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Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting following Layla Moran’s withdrawal from the race

Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting following Layla Moran’s withdrawal from the race

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The race looks all over before it starts After PB’s overnight guest slot on the LD leadership there’s been a big move in that the heavily tipped Oxford West & Abingdon MP, Layla Moran, has withdrawn from the race. So the attention now turns to Jo Swinson who decided not to stand two years ago because she had a very young child to care for. She was made deputy to Cable and has been seen a lot more in the…

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Looking to the coming LD leadership contest and the potential relationship with CHUK

Looking to the coming LD leadership contest and the potential relationship with CHUK

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A guest slot by The Golden Aspie With the local elections just gone and the European Elections next week we are starting to see a ‘paradigm shift’ in our political landscape. The Conservatives are deeply fratricidal on who should lead them after the inevitability of Theresa’s May departure and what version of Conservatism they should follow. Labour are similarly divided although the chasm is between the Leadership on the one side and the PLP and Members on the other side…

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