New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

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LAB 32-5 CON 40+3 TIG 6 LD 5-3 UKIP 7= The first of what could number of polls tonight is from Opinium for the Observer and sees the Tories take an 8% lead up from level-pegging a week ago. That’s quite a movement. Clearly the week has seen another political story dominate the headlines that is not Brexit and much of the focus of the new Independent Group has been critical of LAB and particularly its leader. Corbyn looks less…

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TIGgers can reshape politics – but not as a collective of lone wolves

TIGgers can reshape politics – but not as a collective of lone wolves

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They have declared war on the current party system, and must win or die Extinction is the usual fate of most political splits. Whether by political defeat or by a subsequent merger into a pre-existing party, any MP resigning from his or her party and not defecting directly to another one usually finds their subsequent career to be one of struggle, isolation and defeat. Is there any reason to think that this week’s extraordinary events could lead to any different…

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With a cabinet revolt the balance could be moving to Article 50 being extended

With a cabinet revolt the balance could be moving to Article 50 being extended

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In exactly five weeks time at 11pm GMT the UK is due to leave the EU following the procedure laid down in Article 50. With time running out and the threat of a no-deal getting closer three cabinet ministers have taken it into their hands to break all notions of cabinet government and write a piece for the Daily Mail. Their action appears to be designed to blunt the plans of the Toey Brexit group the ERG who are using…

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Labour needs a better response than the TIGers should resign and fight by-elections

Labour needs a better response than the TIGers should resign and fight by-elections

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If LAB had demanded that Jared O'Mara quit his Sheffield Hallam seat then its calls for the seven to resign and have by-elections would carry more weight. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2019 Can we please stop repeating the lie that it's a "convention" for defecting MPs to trigger a by-election? Since WW2, 69 MPs have switched from 1 party to another (not including party mergers, withdrawals of the whip, & sitting as an Independent). Only 4 triggered by-elections….

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Listen to the PB / Polling Matters experts dissect the surveys on The Independent Group in the latest Podcast

Listen to the PB / Polling Matters experts dissect the surveys on The Independent Group in the latest Podcast

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The Polling Matters podcast returns, with Keiran Pedley (now of Ipsos MORI) and Leo Barasi discussing the latest polling on The Independent Group. Just how popular are they with the public? Listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and CON TIGers will hold their seats

William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and CON TIGers will hold their seats

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The basic bet is whether any of the founding 11 TIGers are going to be returned as MPs at the next general election. The names listed are Heidi Allen, Luciana Berger, Ann Coffey, Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Joan Ryan, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith, Anna Soubry, Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston. I’d reckon that Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston would be in with a fighting chance with, I’d guess. high name recognition in their constituencies. I think Heidi Allen in Cambridgeshire…

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The prospects for The Independent Group

The prospects for The Independent Group

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So, is The Independent Group going to break the mould of British politics? The general consensus is that it will be doing well to scrape off the top of the jam. In fact, it seems to me that it is the wrong question. We are all bewitching ourselves with memories of the SDP. This breakaway is not like that breakaway. First, we need to ask ourselves what the group is trying to achieve. Breaking the mould does not seem particularly…

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Corbyn’s no longer the “Next PM” betting favourite as punters evaluate the week’s big developments

Corbyn’s no longer the “Next PM” betting favourite as punters evaluate the week’s big developments

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Gove now in the number one slot With LAB so far losing more of its MPs to TIG than CON then the ability of Corbyn to force an election though mounting a confidence vote has declined a notch. More exits mean fewer MPs who take the Labour whip puts the LAB leader in Commons arithmetic terms in a worse position. I’ve never really seen why Corbyn should be favourite here because if…

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