The biggest barrier to a Tory Leaver succeeding Mrs May might well be other Tory Leavers

The biggest barrier to a Tory Leaver succeeding Mrs May might well be other Tory Leavers

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Quite the story in today's Sunday Times. Steve Baker is 200/1 with BetFred and 150/1 with Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, and SkyBet to succeed Mrs May as next PM. I've decided to back him. Angels and ministers of grace defend us! https://t.co/TFWXzA7eG6 pic.twitter.com/olHIbFk4TD — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 12, 2019 If Steve Baker stands he could damage the chances of a Leaver winning or he might just win My view is that if the Tory Leavers want to ensure of their own succeeds…

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Is this expectations from the Conservatives or are they really going to finish sixth in the Euros?

Is this expectations from the Conservatives or are they really going to finish sixth in the Euros?

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Expectations management or are the Conservatives really going to finish sixth in the European elections?https://t.co/HmZfRgv4yd — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 11, 2019 Why David Cameron & Theresa May might soon be seen as the modern day H.H. Asquith & David Lloyd George My first instinct to the Guardian story was this is expectations management by the Conservatives, I mean really the Conservatives finishing sixth in a nationwide election? But then I realised the evidence being used here were the arguments I…

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The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro polls

The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro polls

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The blues down to 22% with Opininum WM poll Latest Westminster polling numbers from @OpiniumResearch sees the Tories down to just 22%. BREX now in third place just one point behindLAB 28 (-5)CON 22 (-4)BREX 21 (+4)LD 11 (+5) UKIP 4CHUK 4 , — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2019 And for the Euros TMay’s party down to 11% below the LDs New @OpiniumResearch Euro poll has CON slipping into FOURTH placeBREX 34%LAB 21% LD 12% CON 11%GRN 8% UKIP…

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Change UK have given a masterclass in how not to launch a political party

Change UK have given a masterclass in how not to launch a political party

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Their muddled thinking has killed their project To be wrong once is inevitable, to be wrong twice is unfortunate, to be wrong three times is careless, but to be wrong as many times as Change UK have been is to show all the tactical and strategic awareness of a garden leaf trying to outwit a playful cat. It’s not merely that they keep losing the game; it’s not even that they don’t seem to know how the game’s played; it’s…

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If the latest Euro polling is right the Tories are near to being pushed into 4th place

If the latest Euro polling is right the Tories are near to being pushed into 4th place

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Wikipedia Over the last couple of days there been the first post local elections polls on the May 23rd Euro elections. As can be seen in the Wikipedia table the Brexit party is staying pretty stable in pole position with the Labour Party about 3% behind and the Tories much further down. In fact the latest Opinium poll has the Tories on 14% with the Lib Dems up 5 on 12%. It was always going to be, though, that the…

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“Bollocks to Brexit!” will be a net vote gainer not a vote loser for the LDs

“Bollocks to Brexit!” will be a net vote gainer not a vote loser for the LDs

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Lots of talk over the past 24 hours about the Lib Dem slogan on one of its leaflets for the European parliament election campaign. Clearly the word “bollocks” is one that is on the very margins of what is acceptable in polite society but it does get home the message well. Also “Bollocks to Brexit” has the added advantage of alliteration and it is very clear where the party stands. This in sharp contrast to Corbyn’s LAB which is hamstrung…

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Esther McVey puts her hat into the ring for TMay’s successor

Esther McVey puts her hat into the ring for TMay’s successor

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Given the precarious a position TMay is in at the moment we have to assume that we are fairly close to a CON leadership contest when the membership will choose not just a new party leader but of course the next PM. Last week Rory Stewart announced that he would contest the leadership once a vacancy occurs and today another prominent figure, Esther McVey, has declared that she too will be amongst the contenders. The former TV presenter, now MP…

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