If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

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Dealing with turnout is very challenging One of the common criticisms of pollsters in recent years is that they have a tendency to herd particularly as we get closer to elections. Well for sure that’s one thing that isn’t happening this time. With just a week and one day to go the above chart shows the Brexit party lead in the most recent polls and as can be seen there is a huge gap between the figures from YouGov and…

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It’s now just possible to contemplate that my 32p Euros bet at 990/1 might just be a winner

It’s now just possible to contemplate that my 32p Euros bet at 990/1 might just be a winner

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BMG Euros poll for the Indy hasBXP 26%LAB 22%LD 19%CON 12%GRN 10%CUK 3%So the LDs just 7 points behind BXP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2019 Just before the local elections I offered political punters on the Betfair exchange Euro election that I’d bet £2 on the LDs at 990 to win most seats in the Euros. This was pure speculation and something I often do. Normally there are no takers but in this came someone came forward and…

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What happens to CHUK if it fails to win more a couple of MEPs a week on Thursday?

What happens to CHUK if it fails to win more a couple of MEPs a week on Thursday?

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If it can’t make progress under Euro elections voting system then its surely doomed I have just received my freepost delivery of the CHUK Euros leaflet and I reproduce the pages that have words on it above. I’m sure many PBers will have seen it as well. What is striking is how weak the leaflet with hardly any effort to try to persuade people to vote. Is it it is almost as if it has given up already. The freepost…

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Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting following Layla Moran’s withdrawal from the race

Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting following Layla Moran’s withdrawal from the race

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The race looks all over before it starts After PB’s overnight guest slot on the LD leadership there’s been a big move in that the heavily tipped Oxford West & Abingdon MP, Layla Moran, has withdrawn from the race. So the attention now turns to Jo Swinson who decided not to stand two years ago because she had a very young child to care for. She was made deputy to Cable and has been seen a lot more in the…

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Looking to the coming LD leadership contest and the potential relationship with CHUK

Looking to the coming LD leadership contest and the potential relationship with CHUK

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A guest slot by The Golden Aspie With the local elections just gone and the European Elections next week we are starting to see a ‘paradigm shift’ in our political landscape. The Conservatives are deeply fratricidal on who should lead them after the inevitability of Theresa’s May departure and what version of Conservatism they should follow. Labour are similarly divided although the chasm is between the Leadership on the one side and the PLP and Members on the other side…

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It is now an 91% chance that TMay will be out this year

It is now an 91% chance that TMay will be out this year

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From Betdata.io chart of Betfair market Aside from the Euro elections next week the other big UK political betting market which has seen a lot of activity is on the date when TMay will finally step aside. After the local elections two weeks ago and the impending disaster for her party a week on Thursday this surely will be the moment when she finally runs out of time. Yet will she? One thing we know is that she isn’t going…

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The CON-LAB polling misery continues

The CON-LAB polling misery continues

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So how's that fence-sitting playing out in London, Mr Corbyn?Well, according to @youGov/@QMUL poll, if there was a general election tomorrow, Londoners would vote: L 35 (down from 49 in December)C23 (33)LD 21 (11)G 7 (3)Brexit 10 (Ukip was 3 in Dec) A beating for Lab & Con — Joe Murphy (@JoeMurphyLondon) May 13, 2019 New London poll finds BRX/LD/GRN rising while the big two slump We are now getting to the stage ahead of the Euro elections next week…

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If Graham Brady had acted differently in July 2016 TMay might never have become PM

If Graham Brady had acted differently in July 2016 TMay might never have become PM

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And the last three years could have been very different With the pressure ratcheting up in the Tory party against TMay it is perhaps worth recalling how she got the job in the first place in July 2016. Boris was the longstanding favourite but pulled out following Michael Gove’s surprise entry into the race. In the MP balloting TMay came top with Andrea Leadsom second. So Leadsom and Theresa May were two names that were to go to the membership. But…

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