politicalbetting.com – Page 694 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

With Johnson looking a near certainty the big betting focus is on who’ll join him in the final 2

17/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

My 13/1 “final 2” bet on Stewart looking promising Last week I placed a small bet with Ladbrokes on Rory Stewart at 13/1 making the final two in the Conservative leadership contest. The response I got on Twitter was interesting and with most saying I was wasting my money. Almost whenever I publicise a bet people interpret this a prediction which is not the case. Like all these things it is worth repeating that bets are assertions of value. You…

Read More Read More

Meanwhile in that other leadership race…

17/6/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Dr Foxy on how the Swinson Davey battle is shaping up Understandably the focus of political interest and betting is on the contest to succeed Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party, and most likely Prime Minister. This does rather overshadow the ongoing contest for the leadership of the Liberal Democrat Party, which finds itself in the rather unfamiliar position of rude health. Having had some excellent results in both Local Elections and in the recent Euro elections, Vince…

Read More Read More

The revolution will not be televised

16/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The sleeper topic that will corrode the government’s ratings https://twitter.com/hwyeb/status/1138752261901959174 Allow me to tell you the most middle class joke in existence. Q: What do gay men do in bed? A: Eat biscuits and listen to Radio 4, same as everybody else. OK, it’s all in the delivery. Radio 4, and the rest of the BBC, have long term concerns about the delivery of their services too: where is the money going to come from to fund them? This…

Read More Read More

To show they’re back in the game the LDs need the Brecon & Radnor recall petition to succeed and to win the ensuing by-election

16/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

An early by-election test for the new CON leader? This weekend has seen the last intensive campaigning in the Brecon and Radnor constituency to persuade those on the electoral roll to sign the petition that the sitting MP br recalled. This would create an immediate vacancy and a Westminster by-election would be called. On Thursday evening the recall petition will be closed and should the 10% threshold be reached then there’ll be a Westminster by-election there – the largest constituency…

Read More Read More

The Tories move to 21% in a YouGov poll and this is being described as a “surge”

15/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Who'd have thought only four months ago that the Tories moving to 21% rating in a national voting intention poll would be described as a "surge" pic.twitter.com/eiAKTwSdSs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2019 Politics has been turned upside down Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The real driver behind Johnson’s CON MP campaign has been Gavin Williamson, not Lynton Crosby

15/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Marf cartoon first appeared after Williamson was sacked A guest slot by The Kitchen Cabinet There are some events that seem unimportant and innocuous at the time but which have far reaching consequences on the longer-term. Historically, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914 is the biggest example, an event which, at first, attracted little attention but which set off World War I. Another, far less known, is the financial scandals of President Hindenburg’s son, Oskar, which many believe was…

Read More Read More

Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

15/6/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Airy assertions and motivational phrases do not deliver deals or organise governments The landslide victory for Boris in the first round of the Tory leadership contest comes close by itself to assuring him of the outright win. Even at the 1/5 odds currently widely quoted, he’s still value. Put simply, the main question is whether he’ll cruise over the line or stumble over it. His safety-first approach may well tend towards the latter outcome for lack of energy and momentum…

Read More Read More

Boris and the illusion of unity

14/6/2019 Editor Comments 0 Comment

“To govern is to choose. To appear to be unable to choose is to appear to be unable to govern.” – Nigel Lawson There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away. It was a pitch which won respect and therefore won elections. So how is the party doing with the…

Read More Read More