If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all

If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all

Comments 453 Comments

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Mrs May should have declared her deal a triumph As we move closer to the critical votes next week on Brexit the betting markets remain uncertain as to what is going to happen. The chart above shows a market that we’ve not featured on PB before – when will the UK actually leave the EU. If Theresa May gets her deal through then the chances are that the March 29th deadline could…

Read More Read More

Hobson’s choice – the issues facing unhappy LAB MPs

Hobson’s choice – the issues facing unhappy LAB MPs

Comments 325 Comments

How far does loyalty stretch? How far should it stretch? Loyalty to persons who have behaved wrongly is misplaced loyalty but is more common than it should be. Still, even in the absence of misbehaviour there is no one easy answer to this, especially for anyone who has voluntarily joined a group because they believed in its mission, in what it was trying to do. The question is even more difficult for members of political parties given that these are,…

Read More Read More

Fringe concerns. Why all the focus on anti-Semitism in the Labour party?

Fringe concerns. Why all the focus on anti-Semitism in the Labour party?

Comments 509 Comments

Imagine, if you will, that Labour sweep to power under Jeremy Corbyn. There is much that an avowedly socialist government would wish to do. No doubt it would look at nationalising key industries. It would open up the spigots of the Treasury, letting its funds gush into any number of spending channels. It would look to make irreversible redistributions of wealth.   What it would not do, however, is seek to redraw the boundaries of the Middle East – it…

Read More Read More

With both CON and LAB having an interest in the Peterborough recall petition then the chances are that it will succeed

With both CON and LAB having an interest in the Peterborough recall petition then the chances are that it will succeed

Comments 490 Comments

How the mechanics of this new process work The Commons Research department has just issued a new paper on how recall petitions actually work. This is now an integral part of the electoral process and there a strict rules for their operation, campaigning and spending limits. The returning officer for the constituency involved is deemed the “Petition Officer” and follows a strict set of instructions. This is, of course, a process that could involve an incumbent MP being forced out…

Read More Read More

This week’s podcast focuses on Labour including why an early election is better for the party and how it should respond to TIG

This week’s podcast focuses on Labour including why an early election is better for the party and how it should respond to TIG

Comments 401 Comments

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by former adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Theo Bertram. Theo shares some stories of working in Number 10, gives his thoughts on Labour’s current situation (and whether Corbyn can bounce back again) and discusses how Labour should manage the many problems they currently face. Listen to this week’s episode below: Follow this week’s guests, Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @TheoBertram Tweet

Next step for Peterborough MP Fiona Onasanya – facing a recall petition which could trigger a by-election

Next step for Peterborough MP Fiona Onasanya – facing a recall petition which could trigger a by-election

Comments 1 Comment

Whoever wins a by-election can thank Nick Clegg This morning the Peterborough MP Fiona Onasanya, who won the seat for LAB from CON at GE2017, lost her appeal against her conviction and is now facing recall petition. This was a process introduced by Nick Clegg during the coalition and allows constituents to demand that their MP be recalled provided that 10% of the total numbers on the electoral in the constituency demand one and one of a number of conditions…

Read More Read More

Whilst the Tories plough on totally divided over Brexit LAB has its worst polling month since GE2017

Whilst the Tories plough on totally divided over Brexit LAB has its worst polling month since GE2017

Comments 453 Comments

If ever there was a period when LAB should be making headways in the polls then surely it has to be at the moment well that always continue to be divided on brexit. The latest David Cowling table above showing the monthly polling averages for each party has LAB at 35%, the worst since the general election. February was also only the second time since then that Corbyn’s party has failed to have at least one polling lead. Generally all…

Read More Read More

John Hickenlooper, my 270/1 longshot for WH2020, becomes the latest to put his hat into the ring

John Hickenlooper, my 270/1 longshot for WH2020, becomes the latest to put his hat into the ring

Comments 238 Comments

It was back nearly a year ago that I suggested that the ex-Governor of Colorado, John Hickenlooper, might be a good longshot bet for WH2016. I know several PBers are also on him a very long odds. I think that his appeal is that he is total antidote to Trump who has proved himself a successful election winner in Colorado where he’s now stepped down after two terms as governor. I think Trump would have a tougher job riling him…

Read More Read More