In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (and probably PM)

In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (and probably PM)

The first round of voting begins a week on Thursday.

Today the Conservative party announced the schedule and rules in the contest to succeed Mrs May. The biggest changes are the nomination threshold which seems to rule out five candidates based on the number of publicly declared support they have.

The other change is eliminating candidates if they receive fewer than 5% in the first round or fewer 10% in the second round. I suspect this will get rid of the flotsam and jetsam in this contest. Today has seen James Cleverly and Kit Malthouse withdraw from the race and I’d expect others to follow, and those we thought might stand such Penny Mordaunt and Sir Graham Brady deciding not to do so.

It feels like the big mo is with Boris Johnson and for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.

TSE

PS – For those betting on the Theresa May exit date markets in the email from Brandon Lewis he says ‘After the Prime Minister formally steps down as Leader of the Conservative & Unionist Party, the process to elect a new Leader will begin. The Rt Hon Theresa May MP will remain Acting Leader of the Party until a successor is appointed.’ I’m going to argue¬†that her exit is date is June 2019/H1/Q2 2019. May really does end in June.

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