Biden pushed into third place in Iowa – the first state to decide

Biden pushed into third place in Iowa – the first state to decide

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NEW IOWA poll from @davidbinder , via @linkiowa pro-ethanol group, shows a wiiiide open caucus after the first debate: WARREN: 20HARRIS: 18BIDEN: 17SANDERS: 12PETE: 10 note: N = 600, which is as big as some of the Dem samples in public polling *national* samples. — Jonathan Martin (@jmart) July 3, 2019 The reverberations from the first debates continue For several decades the state of Iowa has played a key part in shaping White House race every four years. For its…

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A taste of PMQs with PM Johnson? How he handled City Hall question time while London Mayor

A taste of PMQs with PM Johnson? How he handled City Hall question time while London Mayor

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And what did over a sugar tax when Mayor The Boris war on sugar taxes comes just two and a half years after he imposed a similar measure at City Hall while Mayor of London https://t.co/1RCUXibcNE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Robert Peston suggesting that the battle between Hunt and Johnson much tighter than anybody thought

Robert Peston suggesting that the battle between Hunt and Johnson much tighter than anybody thought

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Johnson supporter: “Right now I would say it is only 60:40 Boris wins” With voting now taking place amongst CON members ITV’s Politcal Editor, Robert Peston writes on the Coffee House blog “According to one of Johnson’s more senior and respected supporters, the questions raised about whether he treats women with proper respect and has the powers of concentration and grasp of important detail necessary for any PM have been gnawing at the consciences of more Tory members than is…

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Now the Johnson campaign gets referred to the Information Commissioner for alleged data protection breaches

Now the Johnson campaign gets referred to the Information Commissioner for alleged data protection breaches

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Harriet Baldwin has asked the ICO if the Johnson campaign’s alleged use of mailing lists is legal David Morris says the ICO must investigate “deeply troubling” claims Ben Howlett and Tory councillors complaining about unsolicited calls from Team Boris https://t.co/jCn2j4wuX3 — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 2, 2019 Quite what this means for the campaign is unclear but if it sets off a narrative that Johnson’s likely victory was by cheating that could hang over him for a long time. This…

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Corbyn’s protégée, Rebecca Long-Bailey, now betting favourite to be his successor

Corbyn’s protégée, Rebecca Long-Bailey, now betting favourite to be his successor

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Betdata.io Will there be a change before the next general election? The furious efforts by the LAB media team to undermine the reports last week that there might be issues with Corbyn’s health suggest that they could be something in it. They protesteth too much . Whatever the issue of who succeeds Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and of course leader of the opposition is one that we haven’t looked at for sometime.  Going back over the Betfair market trends…

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The LD battle is a lot tighter than the current betting suggests

The LD battle is a lot tighter than the current betting suggests

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Ed Davey has a better than a 17% chance If you want to base a predictions on the Betfair market then Jo Swinson, the 39 year old ex Lib Dem minister in the Coalition, is heading for a clear victory in the Lib Dem leadership contest. Her opponent, former cabinet minister Ed Davey, is currently at just a 17% chance on the betting exchange with Swinson on an 83% one. As might be expected I know a lot of Lib…

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Harris and Warrnen now dominate the WH2020 Democratic betting following their performances in the first TV debates

Harris and Warrnen now dominate the WH2020 Democratic betting following their performances in the first TV debates

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Betdata.io The chart above shows the dramatic impact that last week’s debate have had on the fight for the Democratic nomination to take on Trump at WH2020. Before the 76 year old former VP, Jo Biden, looked unstoppable and now all the focus is on the two women senators who are seen to have performed best in the two nights of debate. Meanwhile new YouGov US polling has been published finding that both women were given a 59% rating to…

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Old White Man Mispriced In 2020 Presidential Election – a 140/1 shot that’s surely worth a punt

Old White Man Mispriced In 2020 Presidential Election – a 140/1 shot that’s surely worth a punt

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So… there’s an old white man, whose 2020 Presidential election price on Betfair is wrong. Perhaps very significantly wrong. And no, I’m not talking about Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump or Joe Biden. I’m talking about the Vice President, Mike Pence. On Betfair right now, he’s currently at 150-1. The traditional bookies have him at 100/1. Yeah, you might say, but Mueller’s over, and Trump’s not getting impeached. And his favourable numbers with Republicans are off the charts. So, why…

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