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If Boris wins then last month’s ComRes poll suggests a huge CON recovery is in prospect

6/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Telegraph June 11 2019 The possiblity of a 140 majority would surely tempt the new PM There is little doubt that the Telegraph’s ComRes poll that appeared on June 11th played a major part in the Conservative leadership contest. It came out at a crucial time just as the MP rounds of voting were due to start. As the headline above showed it pointed to a Johnson led Conservative Party winning a majority of 140 seats over LAB in a…

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The man or the message?

6/7/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

The recent decision by Iran to start enriching uranium, in breach of the JCPOA, shortly after the attack on two ships in the Gulf of Oman is a reminder of the Middle East’s penchant for unpleasant surprises. No sooner had the attack happened, than the US, followed by Britain, asserted Iran’s responsibility. There was intelligence proving this. Unsurprisingly perhaps, Corbyn queried its reliability and, even more predictably, was slapped down by the Foreign Secretary. Corbyn was, however, right to ask…

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Johnson looks a certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26

5/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Get ready for PM Johnson One thing that we’ve learned over the last two decades is that we can rely of YouGov CON members’ polling to give a pretty accurate picture of the outcome of a leadership ballot. Before IDS and Cameron’s victories in the postal ballots the firm had the final outcomes to within a point both times. So tonight’s news in the Times that Johnson is ahead by 74-26 leaves us in little doubt about the outcome. That…

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The LDs winning 50%+ of the Brecon & Radnorshire vote looks good value at 7/2

5/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I may be committing a '@campbellclaret' error by sharing, but I care little!I'm a Labour Party member who is going canvassing to support @DoddsJane of the @WelshLibDems next week in her bid to win the #BreconandRadnorshireby-election.For me, it's #CountryBeforeParty #Remain pic.twitter.com/QtZE6TH72T — Angela ???? Rebel With Many Causes #ToriesOut (@spaceangel1964) July 5, 2019 Can they top the 49.7% of Richmond Park? Within the next hour we should get the full list of nominated candidates for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election…

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The harsh facts that the leadership contenders need to face

5/7/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

Lawyers are rarely regarded with affection. Lawyers-turned-politicians even less so. Nonetheless David Gauke’s speech at this week’s Lord Mayor’s banquet is worth a careful read, not least for its defence of the rule of law as a critical element underpinning democracy (a word never off the lips of some politicians wholly ignorant that something more than shouting “The people have voted” repeatedly is needed to sustain a democracy). Gauke’s quiet praise for the unfashionable virtues of public service, intellectual rigour, a…

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Speculation over 2019 election has punters now making it a 42% chance

4/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betfair Exchange historical prices from betdata.io With political uncertainty continuing to dominate British politics the chances of a general election this year have moved to a 42% chance on Betfair. This is not the highest it has ever been but, as the chart shows, it represents considerable change. I’m not convinced. I think the new CON leader, most likely Boris, will do anything that avoids an early exit that could deprive him of what he has been aiming for for…

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A Marf cartoon for the day Corbyn’s LAB dropped to a polling low

4/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This Marf cartoon first appeared in the Jewish Chronicle.

LAB drops to record low in latest YouGov Times poll

4/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

BREAKING: Labour down to 18%, record low in poll CON 24%(+2)BREX 23%(+1)LDEM 20%(+1)LAB 18%(-2)GRN 9%(-1) ?Lowest ever rating with @YouGov back to 2002 ?Only time as low as 18% was IpsosMORI in May’09 ?57% of Lab ‘17 voters back other partieshttps://t.co/DdJkLH2g8b pic.twitter.com/WJrZaHwXXv — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) July 3, 2019 Paying the price for its Brexit equivocation? It is not often outside election campaigns for a paper like the Times to make its main story it a Westminster voting intention poll…

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