note: N = 600, which is as big as some of the Dem samples in public polling *national* samples.
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) July 3, 2019
The reverberations from the first debates continue
For several decades the state of Iowa has played a key part in shaping White House race every four years. For its caucuses, usually in January of February, are the first occasion when voters decide on which of the nomination contenders they’d like to represent them.
Because of the early timing voters there tend to take more notice of the party nomination battles ahead of those in other states. So often you can get a divide compared with the national party nomination polls. The closest current national poll has Biden ahead by just two points over Harris.
This latest Iowa poll featured above is the first that has seen Joe Biden pushed into third place and is not a good omen for his campaign. It is also poor for Sanders given how well he performed there in 2016. As we discussed here last week Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts was seen to be the clear winner of the first TV debate with Senator Kamala Harris of California judged to have been the victor in the second.
Iowa is always followed by New Hampshire which is the first full primary state.
With 20+ contenders seeking the nomination to take on Trump in November next year this looks set to be a big and prolonged battle. These early state polls could hurt 76 year old Biden.