“To govern is to choose. To appear to be unable to choose is to appear to be unable to govern.” – Nigel Lawson There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away. It was a pitch which won respect and therefore won elections. So how is the party doing with the…
Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers and ask whether Johnson is a shoo-in to be the next Prime Minister and whether or not he is the vote winner that some say he is. Listen to the episode here: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet
This was Chuka's result in Streatham at GE2017. Will be able to defend that as an LD. The seat had just about the biggest remain vote at the referendum. pic.twitter.com/XpGgdVwzL8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2019 Quite refreshing to read an interview where someone admits that they were flat wrong about something this big: https://t.co/nPjwsrZUlv — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) June 13, 2019
Chart of Betfair price movements from Betdata.io The big betting move following Johnson’s thumping victory in the first round of the CON MP leadership voting has been renewed interest in the next general election taking place this year. This has now moved to favourite on Betfair. A challenge for a Boris-led CON party is going to be keeping the parliamentary grouping together because, if not, you could see him failing a government confidence motion at the first hurdle which, if…
The Tory leadership open thread CON MP voting in the first round of the leadership contest ended at noon and the result is expected by 1pm. Contenders need to have secured 17 or more votes to get into the next round. Gove – 37Hancock – 20Harper – 10 OUTHunt – 43Javid – 23BoJo – 114Leadsom – 11 OUTMcVey – 9 OUTRaab – 27Stewart – 19 — Tim Stanley (@timothy_stanley) June 13, 2019 Johnson moves to a 79% chance on Betfair…
As CON MPs prepare to vote a look at the bigger picture There is a political divide in Britain. No, not that one. But one between those seeing Brexit as an end in itself and those for whom it is a means to an end. The former seems to comprise most of the Tory party. The candidates for leader seem to agree. “We must do Brexit” they cry. In some cases, one suspects it is said with all the sincerity…
Now she’s got to overhaul Joe Biden While all the focus in the UK has been on the CON leadership race there’ve been significant moves in the fight for the 2020 Democratic nomination. This comes as the many contenders, there are more than 20 of them, focus on the first national TV debates between the hopefuls later in the month. These are seen as the formal start of the campaign. Until now just about all the polling has had former…
Would a PM Johnson try to please those who got him there? The above findings are from recent YouGov polling of CON members – the group that in in a week or so will decide on who should be the next party leader and, of course next PM. Tomorrow CON MPs hold the first round of voting in the process of whittling down to two names which will go to the membership in a postal ballot. The data from…