The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventually

The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventually

It’s all about the timing Conventional wisdom has it that the favourite never wins Tory leadership races. In one sense, this is probably true. I don’t have the historic figures but before every leadership election since the Party moved away from the old Magic Circle method of leaders ‘emerging’, there’s a good case that the person who emerged the winner was not the one seen as most likely to succeed in the period before the election was called. However, that…

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With Johnson looking a near certainty the big betting focus is on who’ll join him in the final 2

With Johnson looking a near certainty the big betting focus is on who’ll join him in the final 2

My 13/1 “final 2” bet on Stewart looking promising Last week I placed a small bet with Ladbrokes on Rory Stewart at 13/1 making the final two in the Conservative leadership contest. The response I got on Twitter was interesting and with most saying I was wasting my money. Almost whenever I publicise a bet people interpret this a prediction which is not the case. Like all these things it is worth repeating that bets are assertions of value. You…

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Meanwhile in that other leadership race…

Meanwhile in that other leadership race…

Dr Foxy on how the Swinson Davey battle is shaping up Understandably the focus of political interest and betting is on the contest to succeed Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party, and most likely Prime Minister. This does rather overshadow the ongoing contest for the leadership of the Liberal Democrat Party, which finds itself in the rather unfamiliar position of rude health. Having had some excellent results in both Local Elections and in the recent Euro elections, Vince…

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The revolution will not be televised

The revolution will not be televised

The sleeper topic that will corrode the government’s ratings   https://twitter.com/hwyeb/status/1138752261901959174 Allow me to tell you the most middle class joke in existence.  Q: What do gay men do in bed? A: Eat biscuits and listen to Radio 4, same as everybody else. OK, it’s all in the delivery.  Radio 4, and the rest of the BBC, have long term concerns about the delivery of their services too: where is the money going to come from to fund them?  This…

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To show they’re back in the game the LDs need the Brecon & Radnor recall petition to succeed and to win the ensuing by-election

To show they’re back in the game the LDs need the Brecon & Radnor recall petition to succeed and to win the ensuing by-election

An early by-election test for the new CON leader? This weekend has seen the last intensive campaigning in the Brecon and Radnor constituency to persuade those on the electoral roll to sign the petition that the sitting MP br recalled. This would create an immediate vacancy and a Westminster by-election would be called. On Thursday evening the recall petition will be closed and should the 10% threshold be reached then there’ll be a Westminster by-election there – the largest constituency…

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The Tories move to 21% in a YouGov poll and this is being described as a “surge”

The Tories move to 21% in a YouGov poll and this is being described as a “surge”

Who'd have thought only four months ago that the Tories moving to 21% rating in a national voting intention poll would be described as a "surge" pic.twitter.com/eiAKTwSdSs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2019 Politics has been turned upside down Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The real driver behind Johnson’s CON MP campaign has been Gavin Williamson, not Lynton Crosby

The real driver behind Johnson’s CON MP campaign has been Gavin Williamson, not Lynton Crosby

Marf cartoon first appeared after Williamson was sacked A guest slot by The Kitchen Cabinet There are some events that seem unimportant and innocuous at the time but which have far reaching consequences on the longer-term. Historically, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914 is the biggest example, an event which, at first, attracted little attention but which set off World War I. Another, far less known, is the financial scandals of President Hindenburg’s son, Oskar, which many believe was…

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Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

Airy assertions and motivational phrases do not deliver deals or organise governments The landslide victory for Boris in the first round of the Tory leadership contest comes close by itself to assuring him of the outright win. Even at the 1/5 odds currently widely quoted, he’s still value. Put simply, the main question is whether he’ll cruise over the line or stumble over it. His safety-first approach may well tend towards the latter outcome for lack of energy and momentum…

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