The Tories seem determined to blow up their own party

The Tories seem determined to blow up their own party

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new administration has so far moved with speed and determination. That’s one reason why so many commentators seem taken in by its impression of tough-minded resolve and tactical acumen. But we shouldn’t be fooled. There are huge risks in the approach that Johnson and his right-hand man Dominic Cummings are taking, and they have made a series of mistakes that might give their opponents the last laugh. The first blunder the new-model Conservatives made actually predates…

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Breaking: The Conservative Party

Breaking: The Conservative Party

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168268494703603712 And me too I hope — Rory Stewart (@RoryStewartUK) September 1, 2019 Tory rebels hit back tonight ??Point out almost 1 in 4 of current cabinet voted against brexit deal under Theresa May??call this “sheer hypocrisy”??insists the threats aren’t working Source close to rebels: pic.twitter.com/qZA0CZMtPu — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) September 1, 2019 A PM ready to say goodbye to a whisker of a majority is a PM who might be ready to call an election… what’s the real…

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Local By-Election Summary : August 2019

Local By-Election Summary : August 2019

Votes Cast, % Share, Change in votes and Seats : August 2019 Liberal Democrats 6,218 votes (33.94% +5.23% on last time) winning 5 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 5,362 votes (29.27% -2.66% on last time) winning 2 seats (-1 on last time) Labour 2,951 votes (16.11% -10.04% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time) Scottish National Party 1,582 votes (8.63% +2.88% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Local Independents 824 votes…

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Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

Write about what you know, they say. So I don’t normally write about American politics, about which I don’t pretend to have any special understanding. I’ll happily bet on it though. I’m going to break my habit now, to consider four related markets on Betfair and their interrelationship, to see if I can find some relative value. Let’s start with the simplest: the winning party for the 2020 presidential election. The last traded price for the Democrats was 1.92, implying…

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The hugely different findings we are getting when the “Johnson v Starmer” best PM question is asked

The hugely different findings we are getting when the “Johnson v Starmer” best PM question is asked

One of the features of current polling is that we are getting very different findings for the best Prime Minister question as the chart above shows. While the Starmer figures are in a narrow range of 31%-35% the Johnson numbers have a spread of 30%-48%. Could it be the pollsters’ formats that impact on this. While YouGov has Starmer ahead and Opinium has it very close the most prolific pollster, Redfield and Wilton, consistently have Johnson with substantial leads. I…

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Boris Johnson Invites Himself to the Battle of Ipsus

Boris Johnson Invites Himself to the Battle of Ipsus

After Alexander the Great died, his actual successors were a newborn baby and a half-brother who suffered learning difficulties. Unsurprisingly, his cadre of incredibly capable generals took real power and soon fell out, leading to the warring era of the Diadochi (Successors). Excepting Perdiccas, who reigned as regent for the few years immediately after Alexander’s death, Antigonus Monopthalmus came closest to uniting the vast realm that the Macedonians had conquered. He was pre-eminent amongst the Diadochi, with as much power…

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A general election could unlock a restoration at Stormont

A general election could unlock a restoration at Stormont

Brexit isn’t the only issue stoking the tensions in Ulster Northern Ireland rarely gets much coverage from the mainland British press. Riots generate a fraction of the coverage that a similar one in England or Scotland (never mind London) would get; the recent Harland and Wolff closure was only of interest because of a ship that sank 107 years ago; its sporting competitions are, like its politics, a different world. Here be dragons. For once, however, Northern Ireland can’t be…

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This is not a government with any real support for its approach and main policy

This is not a government with any real support for its approach and main policy

The unelected PM without a mandate has a big credibility problem https://t.co/TMrSpjOb3v — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 30, 2019 New: More say government wrong to prorogue parliament – but Leavers are happy #Brexit pic.twitter.com/lcItRpbeby — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 30, 2019 New What is closing parliament for? Most don't believe No 10 pic.twitter.com/MJwwtybAQR — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 30, 2019 The government stopping Parliament from meeting between mid-September and mid-October is… Acceptable: 31%Not acceptable: 53% via @YouGov https://t.co/aLFu514leG pic.twitter.com/9SZWXq40Al —…

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