BJohnson – the politician who keeps getting overstated in the polls

BJohnson – the politician who keeps getting overstated in the polls

Comments 0 Comment

Do voters have second thoughts when faced with him on the ballot paper? Back in 2001 the fledgling YouGov polling company first came to our attention with its survey of CON members ahead of the leadership ballot. There was never any doubt that IDS would beat the pro EU Ken Clarke but this new polling company uniquely then using the internet scored a spectacular success by getting the result within one percent. Four years later it was DDavis versus Cameron…

Read More Read More

Then what?

Then what?

Comments 0 Comment

The tweet from @TeamSaj quoting what he said in the C4 debate has been deleted. But here is what he said. You can’t delete that. https://t.co/1L5iQgtjAv — Krishnan Guru-Murthy (@krishgm) August 29, 2019 When I was younger, I casually enjoyed those Choose-Your-Own-Adventure books. For those of you that were not nerdy male teenagers in the 1980s, these were books with non-linear structures where you were presented with a series of choices with page numbers.  You made your choice and you…

Read More Read More

The current most active UK betting market is on whether Article 50 will be revoked

The current most active UK betting market is on whether Article 50 will be revoked

Comments 0 Comment

Yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister that there will be a Queen’s speech in mid October meaning that the number of parliamentary days available for debating Brexit has been drastically reduced has led to to a lot of betting. The current busiest market in terms of money traded is the Betfair one above on whether article 50 will be revoked. Currently that’s rated as a 25% chance but things are developing all the time and this could move up or…

Read More Read More

The Tangled Web that has evolved

The Tangled Web that has evolved

Comments 0 Comment

We should not have been surprised. Johnson has never had much desire to be held accountable. Not as London Mayor. Nor as Foreign Secretary. Even when he misspoke (to put it at its most charitable) over Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, his response was petulant and grudging. He went out of his way to avoid scrutiny at the start of his campaign to become Tory leader. This is not a politician who enjoys debate and argument, willing to test his ideas, face challenge….

Read More Read More

The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the people” is that those thinking Brexit was wrong have a 6% lead

The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the people” is that those thinking Brexit was wrong have a 6% lead

Comments 0 Comment

This rather narrows the target audience This polling Tracker from YouGov has been asked at least twice a month since the 2016 referendum and the big trend is that there has been a shift from those thinking Brexit was right to those thinking that brexit was wrong. This matters, I would suggest, if there is to be an election which is presented as being about the People vs the Politicians as is being suggested by many commentators this morning. For…

Read More Read More

After an eventful day three Questions from CycleFree

After an eventful day three Questions from CycleFree

Comments 0 Comment

Why is the current Tory government so unwilling to ask voters  – in a General Election (or via a referendum) or their representatives in Parliament – whether they want to leave the EU on the basis of no withdrawal agreement and with no transitional stage? How does the government think that such a decision (a No Deal exit) – and the means by which it is effected – will gain and maintain any consensus, and for how long? What arguments…

Read More Read More