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A Very English Vice

12/9/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

Where would we be without hypocrisy? It may have been described (by a Frenchman, unsurprisingly) as “the tribute vice pays to virtue” but a life of complete virtue would be, frankly, intolerable. So let’s enjoy the various hypocrisies our leaders have served up to us in recent weeks:- Mrs May honouring her former press secretary, Robbie Gibb, with a knighthood having, rather nastily, attacked Cameron’s press secretary, Craig Oliver, for his own. However hard poor Sir Robbie worked, a good press…

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If Boris Johnson hopes to win Labour seats at the general election then he needs to improve his approval ratings with GE2017 Labour voters

11/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The Cummings and Johnson strategy has been clear for a while, sacrifice Tory seats in Scotland and Remain leaning seats elsewhere whilst winning a lot of Labour held seats that vote Leave. It is an interesting strategy that may work but looking at those numbers from the latest Opinium poll will make for sober reading for Cummings and Johnson. My own belief is that Labour voters are tribal and loyal and the jump to the Tories will not happen in…

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Sporting Index open their general election seat markets

11/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

My approach to the spreads is to snog the Lib Dems, marry the Greens & the Brexit Party, and avoid the Tories & Labour. I really enjoy spread betting, it is fun laced with huge risk which makes it fun, and allows you to open and close positions long before election day, plus in the past it has been very profitable so I’m glad Sporting Index have opened up these markets. I’ve spent the last few hours looking at this…

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The Case of the Missing Documents

11/9/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

One of the votes lost by the government shortly before Parliament was prorogued was in relation to a demand that it provide by Wednesday 11 September correspondence and communications (defined very widely) sent to or from 9 named people since 23 July “relating to the prorogation of Parliament”. There has been much fuss made about the demand for communications made on personal phones or via various message services as if this were an intolerable intrusion into people’s privacy and/or a breach…

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Fewer than half of Leave voters would consider a No Deal Brexit a success

10/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Would Brits see a no-deal Brexit as a success or a failure? A failure: 48%A success: 24%Neither: 16%https://t.co/s0S7LwaCCm pic.twitter.com/nuyJshWMl7 — YouGov (@YouGov) September 10, 2019 Leavers have played the expectations game over a deal very badly One of my assumptions has been that after a period of sustained No Deal support for No Deal and Brexit would crater like a failed NASA mission to Mars and this poll seems show happiness for a No Deal Brexit starts from a lowish…

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Your regular reminder that the wording and format of polling questions can influence the outcome

10/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1171358165964873728 Perhaps this explains why Yes did so well in the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum. In any future Independence referendum the Unionists should ensure the question on the ballot paper is ‘Should Scotland remain a member of the United Kingdom?’ Yes or No. TSE

When the betting markets get it wrong boy do they get it wrong

10/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Meet the reverse ferret in political betting markets. The charts above show how even the betting markets can get it spectacularly wrong. Below is the spreads offered by Sporting Index a few hours before the polls opened for the 2015 general election. This is what the Sporting Index spreads were a few hours before the polls opened on the day of the 2015 general election. Was a very bad night if you sold Conservatives seats or bought Labour and/or Lib…

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This will be a day long remembered. It has seen the end of Bercow, and will soon see the end of No Deal, I think

9/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Boris Johnson maintains his perfect record of losing every single House of Commons vote held under his premiership. https://t.co/AIr8uBw6ui — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) September 9, 2019 A senior government source wishes Bercow well “Bercow thinks he’ll walk away as a hero, when most people in the country don’t know who he is and those that do think he’s a nauseating wanker. The man has been central to stopping Brexit – the nation won’t thank him.” — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) September…

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