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Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing for the WH2020 nomination

12/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

At evens for the nomination Warren’s odds are too tight Amy Klobuchar’s odds of 300/1 are too long At this stage in a White House race odds of evens on a contender to win the nomination ten months hence are just too tight. So much can happen in the intervening period and it won’t be until Iowa on February 3rd next year that we start to get real voter numbers. There’s also the question as to whether Warren’s left wing…

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Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th

12/10/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

His mental health is too difficult to assess and there are other, better routes When Donald Trump was merely the cartoon boss on the Apprentice, he hammed up his performance with the very successful catchphrase “You’re fired” – although it turned out he really was playing himself all along. Trump’s administration has been a revolving door of appointments amid laudatory comments, followed by resignations and sackings and associated Trumpian bad-mouthing of his former colleagues. In around three years, Trump has…

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At the end of the tunnel

11/10/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

If anyone is wondering what a negotiating “tunnel” is, it’s just Brussels jargon for trying a bit harder not to leak everything — Jon Stone (@joncstone) October 11, 2019 One of the many quirks of Brexit is that things look brightest when we’re in a tunnel. The announcement on Friday that the government’s latest proposals had gone into private intensive discussions caused market sentiment to soar, as well as the hopes of many political observers. What does it all mean? …

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2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

11/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

On a big political day the money on Betfair, according to the detdata.io has been going on the next general election taking place next year or later. This option has just edged December from the favourite slot. I’ve never been convinced of December because staging such a vote when the day’s are shortest and voters attentions are focused on the holiday never looked like a possibility. Meanwhile Corbyn has announced that he’ll step down as LAB leader if his party…

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The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail

11/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A UK Brexit by the end of the year now 38% betting favourite Judging by today’s front pages the prospect for a deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU look better than ever. Certainly Johnson’s meeting with his Irish counterpart on the Wirral yesterday looks very promising but at the moment we do not know exactly what concessions have been made and whether that will be acceptable to the DUP. A political problem of course is that there are…

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The betting markets still make December favourite for the general election but the gap has narrowed

10/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After the Alastair Meeks post earlier today here is the latest betdata.io chart of movements on the “Month of the General Election” market. As can been seen December is still favourite but it has narrowed. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The impeachment polling’s getting worse for Trump

10/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Half of Americans now want him out There’s been another series of anguished Tweets from the incumbent of the White House following the latest impeachment polling commissioned by the channel that used to be his greatest supporter – Fox News. This latest survey is in line with other recent polls and there’s little doubt that voters are turning against him. Meanwhile another great supporter from the past, Matt Drudge of the Drudge Report which acts as a hard right news…

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The pressure mounts from Britain’s biggest car manufacturer

10/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

NEW: Nissan Europe chairman Gianluca de Ficchy has said a no-deal Brexit would put its entire business model in Europe “in jeopardy” and that it “won’t be sustainable”. — Josh Halliday (@JoshHalliday) October 10, 2019 De Ficchy said the firm was well prepared operationally for “a crisis situation” but that “the first thing we need to have is clarity,” adding: “My message is that today as a business we do not have a clear understanding on the future evolution of…

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