Going long. Why a 2019 election is a lot less likely than gamblers seem to think

Going long. Why a 2019 election is a lot less likely than gamblers seem to think

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Let us embark on a voyage of discovery and fantasy. Imagine, if you will, that you are Jeremy Corbyn. You are to retreat to your allotment for the day to clear your mind of the ephemeral nonsense of Westminster and to plan strategically. As you cycle past a couple of your favourite manhole covers, you start to turn your mind to the burning question: on what basis do you want to conduct the next election? We need to conduct this…

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The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less useful next time

The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less useful next time

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Heidi’s pro-Remain electoral deal could impact on 70+ seats A story that’s got hidden in all the Brexit news was this on SkyNews about Heidi Allen, the South Cambridgeshire ex-CON MP who this week joined the LDs. She told the news channel that Remain-backing parties, the LDs, GRN and PC, have come to an agreement whereby only one of them will compete in 70+ key seats in England and Wales. Also agreed is that these parties will not put up…

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The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliament” battle over Brexit might struggle

The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliament” battle over Brexit might struggle

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The Evening Standard is carrying an analysis this afternoon of how opinion over Brexit has moved since the referendum in 2016. It is based on 300 polls and responses to its “Brexit right or wrong” and how respondents would now vote. What helps this analysis is that it is based on so many polls and does show a smallish but significant shift. The report points out that since GE2017 in J 204 out of 226 poll have Remain ahead, with…

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It’s looking like a no-deal brexit or else an Article 50 extension

It’s looking like a no-deal brexit or else an Article 50 extension

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If the front pages have this right then the chances of Johnson getting his deal through look very thin indeed and so the only options remaining are a no-deal Brexit or else it’s an Article 50 extension. The latter,  of course, would breach the the deadlines that Johnson set for himself on taking over at Number 10 and the consequences of such a move are very hard to fathom. The big plan, I guess, is for there to be an…

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On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that a general election will happen BEFORE a UK exit from the EU

On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that a general election will happen BEFORE a UK exit from the EU

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There are too many examples in political betting when favourites have not won to make the assertion that betting can be predictive. What historical trends do show, as in the above betdata.io chart, is how those ready to risk their cash on the Betfair exchange are seeing things at a given moment. As is reflected above over the past six months there have been periods when the money has been going on a UK exit happening first and when a…

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With 23 days to go punters make it a 21% chance that the UK will leave the EU this month

With 23 days to go punters make it a 21% chance that the UK will leave the EU this month

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And another ex-CON MP joins the LDs This is all getting very tight. A new working day starts and there are just 23 to go before the article 50 deadline comes into being with the UK either leaving the EU or a further extension is agreed to. The above betdata.io chart shows that the betting money on Betfair going on the UK not actually leaving on the due date. This is the busiest current UK political betting market and I…

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Corbyn would be taking a massive gamble calling an election when he’s so far behind in the leader ratings

Corbyn would be taking a massive gamble calling an election when he’s so far behind in the leader ratings

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As has been remarked upon many times recently we are in a totally unprecedented situation when it comes to calling the next general election. Following Corbyn’s repeated reluctance to take the bait in September he, effectively, is the one who will decide when the country’s next general election will be held Johnson simply does not have the votes to reach the required two-thirds of all MPs as laid down by the Fixed-Term Parliament Act. If he wants to go to…

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