Johnson edges back to being an even stronger favourite on the Betfair exchange

Johnson edges back to being an even stronger favourite on the Betfair exchange

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange His “bus painting hobby” has moved the agenda on Maybe because we are getting closer to the ballot packs going out and Johnson appears to have survived the Camberwell apartment crisis but we are now seeing a move back to him and away from Hunt in the next CON leader betting. Essentially there’s little more in the story and Johnson’s “painting model buses” interview, however bizarre, has been his dead cat on…

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YouGov finds just 28% wanting a no deal against 43% wanting to remain

YouGov finds just 28% wanting a no deal against 43% wanting to remain

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I like this YouGov approach to discerning public opinion on Brexit – set out the four main option and get people to rank them. The results, which have just been published, are in the table above. The numbers broadly speak for themselves but notice the gender divide.  Women are less likely to make no deal their top choice than men. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Tonight the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination moves to the debate stage with Biden leading in the betting followed by Warren

Tonight the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination moves to the debate stage with Biden leading in the betting followed by Warren

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Tonight in the US the fight for the Democratic nomination for next year’s White House Race moves to a new stage with the first TV debate between the wannabe nominees. Because so many figures within the party have put their names forward the debate is going to be spread over two nights and tonight’s line up includes Elizabeth Warren heading a group of ten. Joe Biden, the current favourite, will feature on…

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Johnson appears to be planning to ignore parliament if it sought to block a no deal Brexit

Johnson appears to be planning to ignore parliament if it sought to block a no deal Brexit

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Dangerous stuff from the wannabe PM Re-reading Johnson interview, he appears to imply he would ignore parliament if it voted against no deal "It would be up to the prime minister of the day. I have myself to decide under the current terms of the extension that we have to apply for such an extension" pic.twitter.com/eGxEqdFsfv — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) June 25, 2019

Meanwhile in the leadership battle in the party that won four times as many MEPs and more than twice the CON vote last month

Meanwhile in the leadership battle in the party that won four times as many MEPs and more than twice the CON vote last month

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Inevitably the Tory leadership contest is totally dwarfing coverage of other political developments including the battle for the leadership of the party that totally out-performed the Tories in last month’s Euro elections. Yet given the parliamentary situation the outcome of this postal members’ ballot could be crucial. Last night I attended a hustings in London, sponsored by the New Statesman and hosted by its political editor,  Stephen Bush. There are two candidates both of whom were ministers during the coalition…

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It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

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The signs are that today will see the writ being moved for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election to fill the vacancy created by the success of the recall petition that has seen the sitting Conservative MP, Chris Davies, forced out of his seat. This follows his conviction and sentencing for expenses fraud. The date looks set to be August 1st bang in the middle of the holiday season. Extraordinarily it was confirmed yesterday that Mr Davies has been selected as…

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The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does not automatically become Prime Minister

The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does not automatically become Prime Minister

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Professor Brian Cox was once asked to explain string theory in a sentence. His answer: “It’s probably not true.” The same one sentence explanation could be used to explain the theory that the next Conservative leader might not become Prime Minister. But since it’s being talked about quite a bit, let’s have a look at why. The current Parliament was elected at a general election held on 8 June 2017. It resulted in a hung Parliament. It is forgotten now,…

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A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros

A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros

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Well at least they couldn’t be accused of clustering With the Tory leadership race taking place and the unique situation where party members will be electing a new PM there’s increasing focus on the polls and the possibility that the new leader could seek to call a general election. One thing I’ve been meaning to do since the May 23rd Euros is to record here how the pollsters did in their final surveys compared with the actual result. This is…

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