New Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gains made at GE2017 and support for independence at 50%

New Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gains made at GE2017 and support for independence at 50%

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New Scotland only poll by Panelbase for the Sunday Times find support for independence at 50% and the Tories losing the majority of Scottish Westminster seats won at GE17 https://t.co/syj1N2Kmdr pic.twitter.com/ASOz17y6qr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2019 Scottish Westminster voting intentions with changes from GE2017 in Scotland SNP 39% +2.1 CON 21% -7.6 LAB 20% -7.1 LD 13% +6.2 GRN 2% +1.8 BREX 5% Bad news for both Boris and Jezza but positive news for Jo At the past…

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Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing for the WH2020 nomination

Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing for the WH2020 nomination

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At evens  for the nomination Warren’s odds are too tight Amy Klobuchar’s odds of 300/1 are too long At this stage in a White House race odds of evens on a contender to win the nomination ten months hence are just too tight. So much can happen in the intervening period and it won’t be until Iowa on February 3rd next year that we start to get real voter numbers. There’s also the question as to whether Warren’s left wing…

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Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th

Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th

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His mental health is too difficult to assess and there are other, better routes When Donald Trump was merely the cartoon boss on the Apprentice, he hammed up his performance with the very successful catchphrase “You’re fired” – although it turned out he really was playing himself all along. Trump’s administration has been a revolving door of appointments amid laudatory comments, followed by resignations and sackings and associated Trumpian bad-mouthing of his former colleagues. In around three years, Trump has…

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At the end of the tunnel

At the end of the tunnel

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If anyone is wondering what a negotiating “tunnel” is, it’s just Brussels jargon for trying a bit harder not to leak everything — Jon Stone (@joncstone) October 11, 2019 One of the many quirks of Brexit is that things look brightest when we’re in a tunnel. The announcement on Friday that the government’s latest proposals had gone into private intensive discussions caused market sentiment to soar, as well as the hopes of many political observers. What does it all mean? …

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2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

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On a big political day the money on Betfair, according to the detdata.io has been going on the next general election taking place next year or later. This option has just edged December from the favourite slot. I’ve never been convinced of December because staging such a vote when the day’s are shortest and voters attentions are focused on the holiday never looked like a possibility. Meanwhile Corbyn has announced that he’ll step down as LAB leader if his party…

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The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail

The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail

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A UK Brexit by the end of the year now 38% betting favourite Judging by today’s front pages the prospect for a deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU look better than ever. Certainly Johnson’s meeting with his Irish counterpart on the Wirral yesterday looks very promising but at the moment we do not know exactly what concessions have been made and whether that will be acceptable to the DUP. A political problem of course is that there are…

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The impeachment polling’s getting worse for Trump

The impeachment polling’s getting worse for Trump

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Half of Americans now want him out There’s been another series of anguished Tweets from the incumbent of the White House following the latest impeachment polling commissioned by the channel that used to be his greatest supporter – Fox News. This latest survey is in line with other recent polls and there’s little doubt that voters are turning against him. Meanwhile another great supporter from the past, Matt Drudge of the Drudge Report which acts as a hard right news…

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