Now five of the top 6 in the Democratic nomination betting are septuagenarians – the other’s 37

Now five of the top 6 in the Democratic nomination betting are septuagenarians – the other’s 37

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Is the party really going to choose an old’un to fight the 74 year old We have not looked at the WH2020 nomination recently but the latest development is that Wall Street multi-billionaire, Michael Bloomberg (77), has started registering to ensure that he’s on the primary ballots in some states. On top of this there’s a lot of betting interest in Hillary Clinton (72) although she has not said that she is running. They join septuagenarians Bernie Sanders (78), Joe…

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Farage looks set to lose his BBC Election Question Time slot following BP’s candidate withdrawal move

Farage looks set to lose his BBC Election Question Time slot following BP’s candidate withdrawal move

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It is being reported in the Times and other papers that Farage could lose some of his key TV debate slots following his move to pull BP candidates in Tory seats. Although Farage is not standing in the election and is not an MP he was allocated the same number of TV debate slots as Jo Swinson including the Question Time special when it was planned that he, Swinson, Corbyn and Johnson would be the line-up. Farage had “earned” his…

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What might mess up Tory strategy – Brexit is a much much bigger deal for CON voters than LAB ones

What might mess up Tory strategy – Brexit is a much much bigger deal for CON voters than LAB ones

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Lord Ashcroft polls Why Brexit is much less of an issue for the red team We have covered this before on PB but it is worth looking again given the proximity of the third general election in four and a half years. On the day of GE2017 the CON peer and pollster, Lord Ashcroft, sought to try to establish why people had voted the way they had and carried out a large sample survey. A key question was asking those…

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The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

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LAB seeing significant seepage amongst its GE2107 leavers But holding up better amongst remainers though the LDs a worry What’s going to be key is being seen as the main option for tactical votes in key battlegrounds where the Tories are on the offensive, A problem is that a party that’s seen to be hemorrhaging support would find it harder to present itself as the tactical vote choice. My view is that so much depends on the final week because…

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The outstanding question from yesterday: How will CON GE2017 Remainers react to the deal with Farage?

The outstanding question from yesterday: How will CON GE2017 Remainers react to the deal with Farage?

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The Farage gamble could come at a price One group of voters who seems to have been by-passed by current events are the 31% of GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain in the referendum. All the focus has been on leavers. The chart above is based on the latest Deltapoll shows their current voting intentions and as can be seen more than two third of them were still backing the party of Johnson. But that fieldwork took place before yesterday’s…

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After an eventful day a CON overall majority now a 60% chance on Betfair

After an eventful day a CON overall majority now a 60% chance on Betfair

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But is it a bigger deal as is being made out? Today’s move by Farage sounds like a very important development but are we over stating it? Much of the coverage seems to be based on the widespread assumption that all the BP party vote will automatically go to the Tories. This is of course nonsense because a quite large slice of BP support comes from former LAB voters who would never go near the Tories. So the effect of…

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A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

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There is a ghost which is stalking this election in the media coverage, and it is the spirit of 2017. Everywhere one looks right leaning journalists are fretting and not quite believing the polls. The spirit of Election 2017 and a good ghost for Labour it is too – “Oh Jeremy Corbyn !”. Everywhere one looks the written media is observing this election as a closish horse race “You can’t rely on labour leavers to not revert to type” twitter…

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The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

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SpprtingIndex The mood on the spread betting markets this morning has been sharply to the Tories with both LAB and the LDs seeing their projected seats numbers drop markedly. This follows a weekend of good polling news for Johnson with LAB and the LDs seeing disappointing drops in their poll shares. The picture is all of Johnson heading for a comfortable working majority. On Friday evening, as I reported here, I made my first big spread bet of the elections…

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