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Election Battlegrounds: Guzzledown

15/11/2019 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Political Betting doesn’t often discuss exhibitions of 18th century art, but I can highly recommend the Hogarth exhibition currently showing at the commendably eccentric Soane Museum in London. It is a very rare opportunity to see in one place all of Hogarth’s masterly sequences of ‘Modern Moral Subjects’, including A Rake’s Progress, A Harlot’s Progress, and Marriage A-La-Mode. Most topical, though, is The Humours of an Election (1754-1755), depicting a (literally) hard-fought election in the two-member constituency of Guzzledown, Oxfordshire….

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Focus on Wokingham where two ex-CON MPs are slugging it out against each other

15/11/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The longstanding Brexiteer versus the defector to the LDs The Berkshire constituency of Wokingham is one of the most intriguing battle grounds at the General Election for it is where the veteran Brexiteer, John Redwood, is seeking to defend his seat against the remain backing former CON MP from the neighbouring constituency, Philip Lee. Redwood has been MP there since 1987. It will be recalled that when Parliament resumed in September it was while Johnson was speaking that Phillip Lee…

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The voting polling’s bad for LAB but Corbyn’s ratings are even worse

15/11/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Above is the Wikipedia list of all the published polls since the general election campaign began. The overall picture is of not that much variation with the Tories in a range of 37-42%, LAB 27-31% and the LDs 15-17%. The one party where there’s a lot of variance is Brexit which has a polling range of 4-10%. That’s largely explained by YouGov’s methodology change that factors in the fact that Farage’s party will be only be contesting non-CON seats. Generally…

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The GE2019 podcast from Keiran Pedley – now with Ipsos MORI

14/11/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Keiran Pedley, familiar to PBers through his longstanding PB/PollingMatters podcast series is now doing a general election series for the pollster, Ipsos MORI, with home he works. Each week he’ll inviting a range of figures to add to our understanding of what’s happening. This is the first. I am sure we all wish Kieran the best of luck. Follow @KeiranPedley Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Just six months ago Betfair punters were making LAB the favourite to win most seats

14/11/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How things can change rapidly in politics The above betdata.io chart shows how views of the general election “seat winner” market have changed so much in the past six months. On May 12th Corbyn’s party was rated as a 48.1% chance ahead of what was then TMay’s Tories. This reflected the polling. The Tories failed to record a single polling lead between April 5th and May 30th. That was all a time when the party was totally divided by Brexit…

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Prof John Curtice does not make a prediction – Summing up where we are

14/11/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Prof John Curtice “The SNP are likely to take seats in Scotland, the @LibDems will take seats but the @Conservatives are 10pts ahead. If these polls are played out as they stand, they will get a majority. This however is not a prediction”. #PSABriefing pic.twitter.com/dSSkJ3pUY8 — The Political Studies Association (@PolStudiesAssoc) November 14, 2019 Punters give Johnson a 62% chance of a majority

It’s Johnson’s bad luck that the floods have happened in Yorkshire home of many of his GE2019 target seats

13/11/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Most of our media may not have worked out or care who Boris Johnson really is, but the people of Yorkshire certainly have pic.twitter.com/AZiCKizzVm — Jonathan Lis (@jonlis1) November 13, 2019 So another day goes by and still the misery continues for many families in South Yorkshire who have suffered because of the flooding. These are situations which are very tricky for a PM because just about nothing he can do or say is going to resonate well. This has…

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Tories trading today at record highs on the Commons Seats spreadbetting markets

13/11/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The @sportingindex Commons seats spread betting markets have been trading today at record highs for the Torieshttps://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/uErgV2qu1w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2019 With nominations for GE2019 closing at 4pm tomorrow we are just four weeks away from polling day. Postal voting is likely to start perhaps a week and a half later depending on the local authority. The Tory polling position is nothing like as dominant as it was at this stage in 2017. Indeed four weeks…

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