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Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be tempted

1/11/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Perhaps the most bizarre event so far in this election campaign was Nigel Farage talking to Donald Trump on his LBC radio programme yesterday. Clearly Farage has been the big loser from the emergence of Johnson as the Conservative leader and Prime Minister and we have heard very little from the the Brexit party leader over the last month or so. How was Farage going to get back into the game and start commanding media attention again? Well we have…

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Quick Test

1/11/2019 robert Comments 0 Comment

There have been Vanilla problems. Apparently, if you clear your cache, then all is well. Thanks

With the former Brexit deadline ending at 11pm how the betting’s moved since Johnson came

31/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

So here we are and a third Brexit deadline is about to be missed in spite of Johnson firm assertions that we would be leaving tonight when he first became PM. This has been a very active betting market with on Betfair alone £7.2m of bets being matched. The Betdata.io chart of Betfair prices really follows what has been happening. My own view is that Johnson won’t suffer any real political damage from failing to get the UK out by…

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Corbyn goes into the campaign with the worst Ipsos MORI opposition leader ratings it has ever recorded

31/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And it’s hard to see what the party can do about it Above are the latest satisfaction ratings from Ipsos-MORI which started polling in the late 1970s. As can be seen from the chart Johnson is now in positive territory, Swinson is a net minus 12, Farage a net minus 22 with the LAB leader on minus 60. There are equal the worst numbers for an opposition leader ever. No doubt LAB optimists will be pointing to what happened at…

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Latest polling round-up

31/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

New YouGov Times pollCON 36% =LAB 21% -2LD 18% =BRX 13% +1GRN 6% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2019 Survation Mail poll "favoured stance on Brexit"Johnson 41%Swinnson 23%Corbyn 15% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2019 From Survation/Mail poll42% of LAB supporters say they would be more likely to vote for the party if Corbyn stepped down; 18% say they would be less likely to vote LAB. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2019 LAB's equivocation stance on…

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New PB / Polling Matters podcast. And they’re off! General Election 2019 kicks off.

30/10/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers as a December 12th election is announced. Who is best placed? What is the path to victory for each party and what should we look out for in the coming weeks? Listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

Things that nobody knows. What to watch out for in the coming election

30/10/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Nobody knows anything. The results of the last two general elections and the referendum result have all come as a major surprise to all the wiseacres (including me). So it is time for a little humility and to think about some of the things we don’t yet know about this election. Here are a few. 1) What are the people who voted in 2017 and who are now saying “don’t know/won’t vote” going to do? In a recent YouGov poll,…

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All three main party leaders are in negative ratings territory with Corbyn’s numbers the worst

30/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Latest YouGov favourability trackers (FW Oct 23/24) If you had followed the 2017 General Election only through the prism of leader ratings then the actual outcome with the Labour recovery would have been less of a surprise. For these were showing that Theresa May’s numbers getting steadily worse and that Corbyn’s were improving very rapidly in the run up to election. Indeed by election day Corbyn had jumped out of negative territory. The ratings format I like the most and…

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