Here are some of today’s front pages and I don’t think there is anything as memorable as the Daily Mail at the same time in the process in 2017. There is much less Tory triumphalism. Its front page today is perhaps the most overtly political and highlights the twin worries for the Tories from the Lib Dems and the Brexit party which both threaten Johnson’s party in different ways. To the Sun and the Daily Express this is all about…
Swing Bellwethers: 2010, 2015, 2017 general elections So the waiting is almost over and Johnson has got his December 12th election date. The vote on the amendment to have it three days earlier was defeated and the government had a rare Commons victory. This is not the same proposal as the one defeated yesterday. Given the polling it is easy to see why punters on Betfair are putting their money on a Tory majority but there is a long time…
The projections from Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway One thing’s for sure in the coming battle is how individual seats voted in the referendum on June 23rd 2016. Above is the standard reference on this projected by the leading political scientist, Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway. Most seats are just projections but in a number there are real results coming from councils which issued data down to ward level. I have the spreadsheet set up so that they…
Every single GB constituency ranked by how close they’ve been to the national swings over the past 3 general elections Thanks to AndyJS for once again creating a very interesting and useful spreadsheet. He mentioned this on the previous the previous thread and I thought it deserved to be highlighted even more. Sure the fact that the top seat is Bedford has made this stand ot for me. Interestingly at the referendum Bedford’s leave percentage was almost exactly the same…
Are we going to see almost perpetual extensions? The latest extension of the Article 50 process is the third time this has happened and, as the latest YouGov polling shows, just 23% believe that we will be out on by the end of January next year. It is not as though an extension is unusual. By my counting this is the third time the process has been put back and, who knows, we could see the same happen again. Of…
If this is a target seat then you cannot fault their ambition This morning the above 8 page glossy A4 leaflet was delivered to my house by the postman (ie the distribution was paid for). What’s odd is not that this should happen but that I live in the Bedford parliamentary constituency which you could hardly describe as an LD prospect. At the last election this was a LAB gain from CON with the LDs getting just 5.9% of the…
With December 2019 general election looking more likely I have just placed another Commons seats spread bet with SportingIndex. With this form of betting the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. It lends itself very well to general election betting on things like how many seats will a party get. My latest bet is a BUY at 56 seats of the LDs on the LibDem 50 up market….
The Swinson December 9th plan could succeed As can be seen from the betdata.io chart there’s an increasing belief amongst punters that there will be a December general election. Later today the Commons will vote on Johnson’s motion under the FTPA for there to be an early election which he says would be on December 12th. Although he has named a specific date there is nothing that will make it happen then if 434 MPs do give it their blessing….