From the PBer who could be an MP in 17 days time As regular readers will know, I am the Conservative candidate for Newcastle-under-Lyme, a seat that has been Labour for a century and has not elected a Conservative since 1880. However I am now facing a majority of just 30, in a seat that voted around 63% to Leave. That’s the official Borough figure – Professor Chris Hanretty has the constituency a touch lower at 61.6% but observers who…
In deepest Remainia the polling picture is very different For the last couple of Sundays the former YouGov president, Peter Kellner, has published a total of six constituency polls as part of an effort to examine potential tactical voting possibilities in seats which voted Remain at the referendum. So far all of them have been in London but next weekend we are promised a selection from elsewhere in England. The voting figures in all six seats have the Tories in…
Average of 8 latest polls, taken 14-22 Nov (incl today's BMG, Opinium, Panelbase, YouGov):Con 43%Lab 29%Lib Dem 15%Brexit Party 4%Green 3% Projected Con majority 94 (All polls take account of Brexit Party standing down; Scotland projected from Panelbase & YouGov, 9-25 Oct) — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) November 23, 2019 But the range is still huge, from Con majority of 0 on a 10-point lead (Panelbase) to one of 210 on a 19-point lead (Opinium) — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) November 23,…
The Friday afternoon’s following general elections almost always see at least one party leader stepping down. Given Corbyn has indicated that he will go if LAB register a fourth successive general election defeat then just 18 days from today a party leadership race could begin. So far as the betdata.io chart shows Rebecca Long-Bailey has now been pipped as the Betfair betting favourite by Keir Starmer but he’s rated by punters as having less than a 20% chance. Quite how…
My 66.4% or more turnout spread bet When it became clear that we were going to have a December general election the general view was this would inevitably lead to a lower turnout than the 68.8% of GE2017. The argument was that at this time of year the days are getting very short and and it will be harder to both campaign and to persuade voters to turn out on. My view is that what drives turnout is how important…
New York Times This had been expected but during the day the multi-billionaire former Republican, Michael Bloomberg has announced that he is running for the White House and he’s formally entered the race. He said: ““Defeating Donald Trump — and rebuilding America — is the most urgent and important fight of our lives. And I’m going all in,” Mr. Bloomberg said. “I offer myself as a doer and a problem solver — not a talker. And someone who is ready…
A poll graphic with a range of exciting facial expressions on our party leaders? Ok, seeing as it’s you pic.twitter.com/ASI9ckwxXn — Jason Allardyce (@Jason_Allardyce) November 24, 2019 I have to admit I wasn’t expecting to see this, after all it was heavily trailed earlier on this year, that the Johnson/Cummings strategy to sacrifice Scottish and Remain inclined seats to win a plethora of Labour held Leave inclined seats. As the country’s greatest ever psephologist, Professor Sir John Curtice, writes Just…
If these @DeltapollUK ratings are replicated with @IpsosMORI then Boris Johnson is about to repeat Theresa May's cratering of her ratings at GE2017. pic.twitter.com/fJQxWO6Hkx — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 23, 2019 Corbyn reducing the PM’s net approval ratings lead by 23 points in a week is a worrying sign for Boris Johnson. Longstanding readers of PB will know that leadership ratings are a much better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, they foretold the unexpected Conservative majorities of…