The betting markets think a no deal Brexit is getting likelier and likelier
Chart of Betfair prices from Betdata.io Cummings certainly has the bottle but has his boss? Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Johnson appears to be doing what Gordon Brown did in the summer of 2007 giving you all the signs of going for an early election
On Betfair it’s now a 72% chance that there will be a general election this year. pic.twitter.com/kJPhshLAzu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2019 Why I’m betting that there’s greater than a 28% chance of no 2019 election This period reminds me very much of summer 2007 when Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair in the June of that year. There was a mass of activity, and a new initiative just about every day. All the speculation was that…
When we are over the line, Brexit happens, then what?
Cartoon from Marf Dramatic changes which might or might not have been planned for One of the (perhaps inevitable) side-effects of the focus on the day when Brexit is going to, finally, happen is a sense that this is a project that just needs getting over the line for it to be largely concluded. The government will have done what the voters ordered. Boris will have delivered. Hooray! We can all move on, cast our eyes westward and concentrate on…
All Eyes on Iowa – the first state to decide
If you want to know who the Democratic nominee to be President will be, watch Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because it is extremely rare for the eventual candidate to fail to win one of those two two states. How rare? Well, let’s look at the history for a second: 2016 – Clinton won Iowa 2012 – Obama won both 2008 – Obama won Iowa 2004 – Kerry won both 2000 – Gore won both 1996 – Clinton won both…
Blind to justice
In less febrile times, the police’s behaviour in Operation Midland ought to be a national scandal: a failure to understand that the police’s job is to investigate, properly and thoroughly, allegations not announce that they are credible simply because they would like them to be true or to gain publicity or to make up for their failure to investigate other child abuse allegations; a failure to provide all the relevant information to the court when obtaining search warrants; wasting public…
Combination therapy. An occasional reminder that using seat predictors on current polling is stupid
You see it happen regularly, on here and on twitter. A new opinion poll comes out, showing dramatic news. Immediately, we decamp to Electoral Calculus and Flavible, to discover that such a poll, if replicated at a general election, would produce a hung Parliament with Plaid Cymru the largest party, able to form a coalition with the Greens and Lady Sylvia Hermon. The oracles have spoken. “Cor blimey”, we expostulate. Why do we do it? At a time when the…
New party grouping, Unite to Remain, will make BJohnson’s autumn election decision even harder
It could put a CON majority beyond reach Eight days ago after the LDs victory in overturning the Tory 19.5% majority in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election I noted that the significant feature had been the decision by the Greens and Plaid Cymru to stand aside. “Here, in this by election, there was only one option for voters who wanted to express their choice for a Remain party and that was the Lib Dems. My guess is this decision of the…
An unconventional carry-on
Never mind what the government should do: what will it do? Ravi Ashwin might not be the first name you think of as being of particular relevance to the Brexit denouement this October. However, his dismissal of Josh Buttler in the IPL this March is an excellent example of one side playing to the rules while the other played to the conventions of the game – and who went on to lose. Too much of the commentary around what’s likely…