Constituency betting round-up

Constituency betting round-up

Comments 0 Comment

Sitting MP Anne Milton now to stand as an Independent in Guildford. pic.twitter.com/2ubZ7vAqNo — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) November 5, 2019 Independent candidate @ClaireWrightInd is only 6/4 to win East Devon. pic.twitter.com/KHvcxDRMDo — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) November 5, 2019 Flip-flop in Fife as Lib Dems take over as favourites to win ultra-marginal seat. pic.twitter.com/w4593JNo48 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) November 5, 2019 The Liberal Democrats are 6/1 to unseat Jacob Rees-Mogg in North East Somerset. pic.twitter.com/tWuxIeskau — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) November 5,…

Read More Read More

If the latest YouGov is on the right lines the Tories are set to make gains from LAB in London

If the latest YouGov is on the right lines the Tories are set to make gains from LAB in London

Comments 0 Comment

Westminster voting changes from today's YouGov London poll suggest the Tories could make gains from LAB in the capital Changes since GE2017: Lab -16%CON -4%LD +10%BRX +6%GRN +2% Swing 6% from Lab to Con — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2019 And terrible ratings for the LAB leader in his home city London has for so long been such a stronghold for Labour that it can be hard to come to terms with the fact that on December 12th it…

Read More Read More

The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch

The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch

Comments 0 Comment

And they’re off.  The Conservatives have raced into an early lead in the polls and will be looking to secure an overall majority. Will they do it? Here are ten seats that will be illustrative of how they will do.   Cheltenham Long-held by the Lib Dems, the Conservatives took Cheltenham in 2015. This constituency was “won” by Remain something like 57:43. It’s a very clear Lib Dem target, though its current MP Alex Chalk himself supported Remain and has opposed…

Read More Read More

So, how will the LibDems do?

So, how will the LibDems do?

Comments 0 Comment

A forecast from Robert Let me start by saying this is not an election I have much confidence in predicting. But because that makes for an uninteresting article, I will make some forecasts. Currently the LDs are polling about 16-17%, which is about five points down on the peak they achieved after the European elections earlier this year. I think there’s around a 40% chance that they end up in the 14-19% range at the coming elections. I reckon there’s…

Read More Read More

YouGov boost for Swinson in the TV debates row

YouGov boost for Swinson in the TV debates row

Comments 0 Comment

By two to one those polled think she should attend Further to this morning’s thread on the exclusion of LD leader Jo Swinson from the ITV General Election debate there’s now a YouGov poll carried out today that points to her desire to be there getting support from the public. Clearly LD voters are most supportive of her presence as the chart shows but there’s strong backing from LAB voters as well and CON ones back her by a small…

Read More Read More

If the Tory MPs are really focussed on gaining northern LAB seats they won’t choose Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker

If the Tory MPs are really focussed on gaining northern LAB seats they won’t choose Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker

Comments 0 Comment

Today’s big election is the voting by MPs on which of them should be the next Speaker to succeed John Bercow. The strong odds-on betting favourite is the current deputy, Lindsay Hoyle MP for the Lancashire seat of Chorley. One factor that might work against Hoyle is that his seat could be regarded as a target for the Tories. Back in 2010 LAB held it with a margin of just 5.2% which means it would have gone on a 2.6%…

Read More Read More

GE19’s first big TV event: A debate between 2 men whose parties between them got just 23.2% in the last UK elections

GE19’s first big TV event: A debate between 2 men whose parties between them got just 23.2% in the last UK elections

Comments 0 Comment

So the argument would be between two leavers I alway felt a bit sorry for ITV at GE2017 when the leaders’ debate it got was the one without TMay or Corbyn. Maybe because of that it has sought to push forward with its Johnson-Corbyn clash without anybody else. This means excluding Jo Swinson and Nigel Farage of the two most electorally successful parties currently in the UK. In the May 23rd elections the Brexit Party and the LDs came away…

Read More Read More

The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

Comments 0 Comment

We saw in Scotland tribal loyalty to Labour can be upturned by a nation changing referendum, will Wales be next? The latest polling in Wales shows the Conservatives leading Labour 29% to 25% yet that 4% lead for the Conservatives still sees Labour win more seats than the Conservatives so it is understandable why Labour are the favourites in this market because first past the post and old constituency boundaries are working against the Conservatives in Wales. I think there’s…

Read More Read More