The outstanding question from yesterday: How will CON GE2017 Remainers react to the deal with Farage?

The outstanding question from yesterday: How will CON GE2017 Remainers react to the deal with Farage?

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The Farage gamble could come at a price One group of voters who seems to have been by-passed by current events are the 31% of GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain in the referendum. All the focus has been on leavers. The chart above is based on the latest Deltapoll shows their current voting intentions and as can be seen more than two third of them were still backing the party of Johnson. But that fieldwork took place before yesterday’s…

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After an eventful day a CON overall majority now a 60% chance on Betfair

After an eventful day a CON overall majority now a 60% chance on Betfair

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But is it a bigger deal as is being made out? Today’s move by Farage sounds like a very important development but are we over stating it? Much of the coverage seems to be based on the widespread assumption that all the BP party vote will automatically go to the Tories. This is of course nonsense because a quite large slice of BP support comes from former LAB voters who would never go near the Tories. So the effect of…

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A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

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There is a ghost which is stalking this election in the media coverage, and it is the spirit of 2017. Everywhere one looks right leaning journalists are fretting and not quite believing the polls. The spirit of Election 2017 and a good ghost for Labour it is too – “Oh Jeremy Corbyn !”. Everywhere one looks the written media is observing this election as a closish horse race “You can’t rely on labour leavers to not revert to type” twitter…

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The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

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SpprtingIndex The mood on the spread betting markets this morning has been sharply to the Tories with both LAB and the LDs seeing their projected seats numbers drop markedly. This follows a weekend of good polling news for Johnson with LAB and the LDs seeing disappointing drops in their poll shares. The picture is all of Johnson heading for a comfortable working majority. On Friday evening, as I reported here, I made my first big spread bet of the elections…

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Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

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Goodness knows I try not to offend. Among the more controversial posts that I have ever put up, however, was one that concerned the SNP’s results at the last election. I noted that the SNP had lost more seats than the Conservatives and that they came within a whisker of losing many more. Their strategic position for the next election looked terrible. This did not go down well with the nationalist fraternity. Yet here we are in 2019, facing that…

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It is possible Jeremy Corbyn really hates political bettors

It is possible Jeremy Corbyn really hates political bettors

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there would literally be one Leave leader and one Remain leader and I’m not making this up https://t.co/MfyMwtAtB9 — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) November 8, 2019 If the polls are broadly correct we are potentially only a few weeks from the start of the next Labour leadership contest, for some of us we’ve been betting on the identity of Jeremy Corbyn’s successor for around fifty months so these are exciting times, however there is a potential spanner in the works….

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Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

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A guest slot by GreenMachine A lot has happened since the 2017 election and the Northern Ireland Executive has been out of office for 3 years now, What will we see this in the election!? First of all we’re going to start with the more obvious results. Belfast West: S.F have held this seat since the 1980’s bar the 1992 election where the S.D.L.P won by several hundred votes. S.F regained control of Belfast West in 1997 (shortly after the Peace…

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Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

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YouGov English regional polling has LAB in 3rd place in the Eastern region the South East and South West We haven’t yet looked at the series of English regional polls that YouGov carried out last month and has only just published them.  This is the first time I can recall this form of polling being carried out across England and the results help us to see where parties are doing well. The South West has always been a key battleground…

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