Just six months ago Betfair punters were making LAB the favourite to win most seats

Just six months ago Betfair punters were making LAB the favourite to win most seats

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How things can change rapidly in politics The above betdata.io chart shows how views of the general election “seat winner” market have changed so much in the past six months. On May 12th Corbyn’s party was rated as a 48.1% chance ahead of what was then TMay’s Tories. This reflected the polling. The Tories failed to record a single polling lead between April 5th and May 30th. That was all a time when the party was totally divided by Brexit…

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Prof John Curtice does not make a prediction – Summing up where we are

Prof John Curtice does not make a prediction – Summing up where we are

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Prof John Curtice “The SNP are likely to take seats in Scotland, the @LibDems will take seats but the @Conservatives are 10pts ahead. If these polls are played out as they stand, they will get a majority. This however is not a prediction”. #PSABriefing pic.twitter.com/dSSkJ3pUY8 — The Political Studies Association (@PolStudiesAssoc) November 14, 2019 Punters give Johnson a 62% chance of a majority

It’s Johnson’s bad luck that the floods have happened in Yorkshire home of many of his GE2019 target seats

It’s Johnson’s bad luck that the floods have happened in Yorkshire home of many of his GE2019 target seats

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Most of our media may not have worked out or care who Boris Johnson really is, but the people of Yorkshire certainly have pic.twitter.com/AZiCKizzVm — Jonathan Lis (@jonlis1) November 13, 2019 So another day goes by and still the misery continues for many families in South Yorkshire who have suffered because of the flooding. These are situations which are very tricky for a PM because just about nothing he can do or say is going to resonate well. This has…

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Tories trading today at record highs on the Commons Seats spreadbetting markets

Tories trading today at record highs on the Commons Seats spreadbetting markets

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The @sportingindex Commons seats spread betting markets have been trading today at record highs for the Torieshttps://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/uErgV2qu1w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2019 With nominations for GE2019 closing at 4pm tomorrow we are just four weeks away from polling day. Postal voting is likely to start perhaps a week and a half later depending on the local authority. The Tory polling position is nothing like as dominant as it was at this stage in 2017. Indeed four weeks…

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Now five of the top 6 in the Democratic nomination betting are septuagenarians – the other’s 37

Now five of the top 6 in the Democratic nomination betting are septuagenarians – the other’s 37

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Is the party really going to choose an old’un to fight the 74 year old We have not looked at the WH2020 nomination recently but the latest development is that Wall Street multi-billionaire, Michael Bloomberg (77), has started registering to ensure that he’s on the primary ballots in some states. On top of this there’s a lot of betting interest in Hillary Clinton (72) although she has not said that she is running. They join septuagenarians Bernie Sanders (78), Joe…

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Farage looks set to lose his BBC Election Question Time slot following BP’s candidate withdrawal move

Farage looks set to lose his BBC Election Question Time slot following BP’s candidate withdrawal move

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It is being reported in the Times and other papers that Farage could lose some of his key TV debate slots following his move to pull BP candidates in Tory seats. Although Farage is not standing in the election and is not an MP he was allocated the same number of TV debate slots as Jo Swinson including the Question Time special when it was planned that he, Swinson, Corbyn and Johnson would be the line-up. Farage had “earned” his…

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What might mess up Tory strategy – Brexit is a much much bigger deal for CON voters than LAB ones

What might mess up Tory strategy – Brexit is a much much bigger deal for CON voters than LAB ones

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Lord Ashcroft polls Why Brexit is much less of an issue for the red team We have covered this before on PB but it is worth looking again given the proximity of the third general election in four and a half years. On the day of GE2017 the CON peer and pollster, Lord Ashcroft, sought to try to establish why people had voted the way they had and carried out a large sample survey. A key question was asking those…

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The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

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LAB seeing significant seepage amongst its GE2107 leavers But holding up better amongst remainers though the LDs a worry What’s going to be key is being seen as the main option for tactical votes in key battlegrounds where the Tories are on the offensive, A problem is that a party that’s seen to be hemorrhaging support would find it harder to present itself as the tactical vote choice. My view is that so much depends on the final week because…

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