History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

The modern era of big, open, political betting began in 1963 when Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes offered odds on the Conservative leadership contest for the ordinary punter. It was a dismal start as the 5/4 favourite Rab Butler was beaten by the 16/1 shot Alec Douglas-Home. In offering the market Pollard tapped into a long, often secret, history of political betting in Britain. In the 1920s, people on the stock exchange would bet on ‘majorities’ – what we now call…

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Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their majority in top Tory target seat

Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their majority in top Tory target seat

Esher & Walton, constituency voting intention: CON: 46% (-13)LDEM: 41% (+24)LAB: 9% (-11) via @DeltapollUK, 21 – 26 Nov — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 30, 2019 Portsmouth South, constituency voting intention: LAB: 46% (+5)CON: 38% (-)LDEM: 11% (-6)BREX: 2% (+2) via @DeltapollUK, 22 – 27 NovChgs. w/ GE2017 — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 30, 2019 Tonight sees a plethora of constituency polling by Deltapoll, I’ve chosen the two results that are eye catching. Dominic Raab who had a 42% majority…

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Time to Think the Unthinkable?

Time to Think the Unthinkable?

“History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce” Karl Marx A guest slot from Stodge Like every other election, the June 2017 General Election had generated its fair share of myths and legends. One is that all the polls showed a big Conservative majority until the very end – well, some certainly did but not all. The YouGov from May 24-25 showed a Conservative lead of just 5 points while Opinium at the same time showed a ten point…

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Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

This should have been their breakthrough chance Jo Swinson confidently asserted at the start of this month that her ambition from the election was to become prime minister. At the time, it sounded exuberantly audacious; in retrospect, it sounds absurd with obvious echoes of David Steel exhorting his followers to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government. Steel ended up after the 1983 election with 23 seats; Swinson, if the YouGov MRP poll has some predictive value, will…

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New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

From @IpsosMORI Scotland poll with vote changes on Scottish results at GE2017. This points to SNP gains from both LAB and CON CON 26 -2.6LAB 16 -11.1LD 11 +4.2SNP 44 +7.1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2019 This could make Johnson’s majority bid that bit harder The part of the UK that has seen the most turbulence with many seats changing hands at the past two general elections has been Scotland which is why special attention needs to be…

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A 200/1 Tip for Next Prime Minister

A 200/1 Tip for Next Prime Minister

The man who took over Hague’s Richmond (Yorks) seat at GE2015 One ever present Political Betting market is that of who will be the next Prime Minister. This will be greatly influenced by the outcome of the General Election, but probably not settled by this election. This is a market that could take many years before it is settled, which provides opportunities for trading bets. The polls currently indicate a healthy Conservative Majority. If that occurs you can rule out…

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