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Trump’s impeachment has almost no impact on the WH2020 betting – he’s still an evens chance to win

19/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And it might not even get to the Senate The betdata/io chart shows the latest WH2020 betting and as can be seen Trump remains the evens favourite to secure re-election in November next year. The overnight apparently dramatic news that this is only the third time in US history that the House of Representatives has voted in this way was widely anticipated and, of course, only the Senate can remove him from office. The upper house would require a two…

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Northern Ireland Westminster Election 2019 – Review And Insight

19/12/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

First and foremost, congratulations to all 18 winning candidates and commiserations to all the losing ones. I will be covering plenty of information including what next?, future prediction, etc. With all the focus on the word “Brexit”, was this election really about brexit and did some parties help other and dent others? find out below First up we have the good old battle between D.U.P and the Alliance. Belfast East (Alliance Party vs DUP) DUP had a 8,500 majority going…

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Long-Bailey back as next LAB leader favourite in very edgy betting market

18/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

There’s been a lot more movement on the Corbyn’s successor betting market on Betfair as the betdata.io chart with Starmer now losing his lead and Long-Bailey moving again into the top slot in the betting. What’s going to shake this up is new polling both of LAB members and votes generally. It will be recalled that back in June Johnson’s leadership chances soared following polling that indicted that we would do better against LAB. Of course it is members of…

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Septuagenarians continue to dominate the Democratic nomination race betting to face septuagenarian Trump

18/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

We are now just six and a half weeks off the first big event in WH2020 – the Iowa caucuses on February 3rd when those seeking the Democratic nomination will face their first electoral test with real voters. The crowded field has slimmed back a bit with former favourite Kamala Harris pulling out but there are a lot of contenders still there. The experience of previous races is that doing well in Iowa and then the New Hampshire primary sets…

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UPDATED: Starmer surges in the Corbyn successor betting while Long-Bailey drops sharply

17/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The revised at 0141 GMT betdata.io chart shows another topsy-turvy day in the betting for next LAB leader. After appearing to be out of it the former DPP ex shadow BrexSec, Keir Starmer has in the eyes of punters at least, moved to be a clear betting favourite on Betfair. At the same time Long-Bailey has slipped sharply from her Monday peak of 51% This follows what appeared to be the launch of the Starmer campaign with him setting out…

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Some fascinating analysis by YouGov

17/12/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The age at which a person becomes more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is 39 – down from 47 at the last electionhttps://t.co/hC7KufOxBl pic.twitter.com/UFter2WicP — YouGov (@YouGov) December 17, 2019 YouGov have published some detailed analysis into how Britain voted last Thursday, I’m quite intrigued that the pivot point for someone more likely to vote Conservative has come down from 47 years old to 39 years old. So it isn’t just the oldies that vote Conservative. There’s a lot…

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Whichever party wins UK general elections one thing in British politics stays the same

17/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The table lists all the party leaders who have led their parties to general election victories since 1935. It does not include Gordon Brown (PM 2017-2010) and Jim Callaghan (PM 1976-1979) who became PM in the middle of parliaments and went onto to lose the following general elections. There is a blank in the column for Winston Churchill and John Major because neither went to university. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

How Britain’s electoral patterns are changing – three great FT charts

16/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

NEW: inspired by @p_surridge & @olhe, I looked at how the class gradient in British politics has been weakening. Labour's loss of the working class is not just a recent Brexit-triggered phenomenon. They've slowly been losing ground to the Tories with this group for decades. pic.twitter.com/oEOZmko75h — John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) December 16, 2019 While age is more polarising than ever, class no longer the dividing line it once was. Middle class now almost as likely to vote Lab as Con…

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