We are now just six and a half weeks off the first big event in WH2020 – the Iowa caucuses on February 3rd when those seeking the Democratic nomination will face their first electoral test with real voters. The crowded field has slimmed back a bit with former favourite Kamala Harris pulling out but there are a lot of contenders still there.
The experience of previous races is that doing well in Iowa and then the New Hampshire primary sets the whole tone for the battle ahead, This is why the contenders spend so much time in the nine months beforehand in the two states.
As a general rule early state polls are probably a better guide at this stage to the outcome than the national surveys in that voters there are likely paying more attention.
The big poll to look out for will be the final one in the Des Moines Register from Iowa pollster, Ann Selzer. She has built up a good track record in finding actual likely caucus participants.
A big feature so far is how old the apparent front runners are. Biden, Bernie and Bloomberg are all in their late 70s with Warren and Clinton in their early 70s. Pete Buttiegieg, by contrast, is in his late 30s. Trump will be 74 next June.
At the moment I am in the green in both the nomination betting and the race itself.