Northern Ireland Westminster Election 2019 – Review And Insight

Northern Ireland Westminster Election 2019 – Review And Insight

First and foremost, congratulations to all 18 winning candidates and commiserations to all the losing ones.

I will be covering plenty of information including what next?, future prediction, etc. With all the focus on the word “Brexit”, was this election really about brexit and did some parties help other and dent others? find out below

First up we have the good old battle between D.U.P and the Alliance.

Belfast East (Alliance Party vs DUP)

DUP had a 8,500 majority going into this election from the previous election in 2017, although with the green party and S.F pulling out, Naomi Long was always going to close the gap. she was never going to win this time as most of Belfast East voted to leave and there are too many loyalists and die-hard loyalists still lingering around this part of the country. the DUP vote also dropped dramatically because they’re anti-gay, etc. The S.F and Green vote obviously went to Naomi Long (Alliance Party) but Gavin is a strong candidate and was always the most likely winner.

What Next? in terms of Brexit, there isn’t anything the Northern Ireland candidates can do as we all knew the conservatives were going to win handily. The word Brexit was just used to try and gain votes on both sides of the debate.

Future Prediction? It’s obviously too early to predict such a seat but if Naomi stays around for a few years and runs again, she could get her beloved seat back.

Belfast North (D.U.P vs Sinn Fein)

?This was by far the most exciting area and the whole of Northern Ireland and further afield in the U.K had eyes on this mouth-watering battle. Alliance were only running to prove that they were not sectarian and to give liberal and middle ground voters an alternative. Personally, I think Nuala McAllister (Alliance) has plenty of potential.

Did the S.D.L.P help S.F win this seat? Not really because if you added the S.D.L.P count on top of the S.F one from 2017, I think Nigel Dodds (D.U.P) was still ahead by around 40-50. How did S.F win this seat? well, there was 4,000 new voters registered in Belfast North and the Green vote was predicted to be around 1000. Therefore, the Green vote and the new voters got John Finucane over the line.

What next? Sinn Fein obviously don’t take up their seats at Westminster, therefore this won’t really mean a lot in terms of mainland although John Finucane will get Belfast North moving in the right direction. Unfortunately, Belfast North has the highest suicide rate in the U.K.

Future Prediction? As previously stated by myself and many others, this would be on a knife edge once again specially if the S.D.L.P & the Green party ran next time around. With the demographic changes in Belfast, It’s likely Belfast North will return a S.F M.P but D.U.P will bounce back.

Belfast South (One Horse Race – But For Who?)

When S.F and the Green Party submitted they would be absent from Belfast South, There was always going to be just one person who would win and that person was Claire Hanna (S.D.L.P). Did the S.F and the Green Party absence help Claire this time? Not really as she still would have won pretty comfortably (by about 7000-8000). the reason S.D.L.P didn’t return a Belfast South M.P last time was because the public wasn’t too keen or fond of the S.D.L.P / U.U.P partnership in 2016. Well done Claire, nothing much more to say.

What Next? I’m hopeful and almost certain Claire Hanna will get a few decent or good things done for the Belfast South Constituency.

Future Prediction? Claire Hanna should be around for a long time and will win again in the next general election, The Green Party vote will go up by 500+.

Belfast West (Forgone Conclusion For Sinn Fein)

This seat has been held by S.F for a couple of decades and it wasn’t going to change, There was more chance of Hitler coming back to life. S.F will continue their work for Belfast West.

What Next? S.F have got a fair amount done for Belfast West and will continue to do so.

Future Prediction? Sinn Fein will win by 10,000+ in the next general election.

East Antrim (Safe Seat But A Reduced Margin)

Sammy Wilson (D.U.P) has held this seat for quite a while and it would be crazy to think anyone else could have won this time round. What appears to be a very safe seat for the D.U.P is no longer as safe, Alliance are gaining ground.

What Next? Sammy will continued to be a nuisance in the House.

Future Prediction? D.U.P will win next time, simple as that.

East Londonderry / East Derry (D.U.P Win Again!)

Gregory Campbell has won again but with a reduced margin, it was ultra close for 2nd place between Alliance, S.F and the S.D.L.P with only around 200 separating the three parties.

What next? Gregory Campbell will continue to do good work for the people of East Londonderry.

Future Prediction? Alliance have a good chance of winning an Assembly Seat.

Fermanagh & South Tyrone (almost a dead heat between S.F and the U.U.P)

Fermanagh / South Tyrone is always the closest constituency by vote count, it never fails to get your adrenaline pumping. this area is simply breath taking and mouth watering. with Michelle Gildernew (S.F) and Tom Elliott going head to head, neck and neck, who would come out on top this time? One thing was for sure, Tom Elliott was going to ask for a re-count as he does every time. Sources were saying Michelle was 20-30 votes ahead just before the re-count and after the re-count S.F sealed the deal by just over 50 votes, what a great battle and unlucky Mr. Re-Count.

What Next? I don’t know too much about her and I’ve never rated Gildernew but I wish her well in her new challenge.

Future Prediction? Tom Elliot could win here next time and if I got a decent price, i’ll be playing for sure.

Foyle (Can the S.D.L.P regain their battleground from S.F?)

There was lots of parties contesting this part of the country, although it was meant to be a two horse race, there was only one winner really. Once Colum Eastwood (S.D.L.P) announced on Social Media and the News that he was standing in Foyle, I knew it would be a one horse race.

The only reasons S.F won here in 2017 is because Martin McGuinness passed away just a few months prior and they wanted to give a proper send off be electing his party. I didn’t expect Elisha McCallon (S.F) to get beat by so much but at the same time, I knew Eastwood would win. Congrats on getting your constituency back.

What Next? at this moment, Colum Eastwood is the best MP for Foyle and hopefully he can get stuck into his new job immediately.

Future Prediction? S.D.L.P should hold Foyle for at least another decade, S.F will increase their vote.

Lagan Valley (D.U.P Hold, Alliance Surge Continues)

Jeffrey Donaldson has been the M.P for Lagan Valley since the beginning of time (figure of speech) and it wasn’t going to be any different this time. Well done to Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance Party) for breaking the 10,000 barrier.What next? It’s hard to predict what will happen in this part of the world.

Future Prediction? Alliance should return at least one M.L.A from Lagan Valley.

Mid Ulster (Wasting Paper, Wasting Fuel – There can only be one Winner)

Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein) was re-elected to his beloved constituency (Mid Ulster).

What Next? He will continue to serve Mid Ulster and enjoy his nice wage.

Future Prediction? It’s not rocket science, Sinn Fein will hold this for at least another 15-20 years.

Newry & Armagh (Another Sinn Fein Safe Seat)

Mickey Brady (Sinn Fein) was re-elected as the M.P for Newry & Armagh, obviously.

What Next? Mickey Brady will continue his work in the Newry & Armagh Constituency.

Future Prediction? S.F will win this seat in the next election, S.D.L.P could get second.

North Antrim (The Paisley Stronghold)

Ian Paisley Junior (D.U.P) has took over from his passed away father (Ian Senior) by wining North Antrim again.

What Next? Ian Paisley Junior will probably continue being controversial.

Future Prediction? Ian Junior will only lose this seat if he passed away or retired.

North Down (Newly Elected M.P & Party But Who & Which?)

Sylvia Hermon has resigned and she was a former U.U.P member, they didn’t have a chance, almost 2,000 people voted for the N.I Conservatives and wasted their time and energy. Alex Easton (D.U.P) increased his vote at the previous General Election and was beat by around 2,000 votes. With S.F, S.D.L.P & The Green Party standing down this time, Stephen Farry (Alliance) was guaranteed their votes.

It was no surprise to see Stephen win by a 3,000 majority as North Down is the most liberal place in the country and has a lot of middle class citizens / families. Stephen Farry (Alliance) was elected to serve as the new M.P for North Down. Unlucky Alex Easton (D.U.P).

What Next? I Think Stephen Farry (Alliance) is the right M.P at this moment of time and I’m confident he will do well for North Down.

Future Prediction? We now know where the U.U.P stand in terms of the North Down Public, they have simply no chance and D.U.P will put a lot of work and effort into this constituency once again, If Alliance get some good things for North Down, They’ll probably be re-elected in a few years again.

South Antrim (D.U.P vs U.U.P)

Paul Girvan (D.U.P) was the favourite going into this contest. I expected him to win but not by almost 3,000. Danny Kinahan (U.U.P) has done well but he doesn’t represent the majority of the people.

What Next? Paul Girvan will try and do the best he can for South Antrim.

Future Prediction? Danny Kinahan will be trying to get this seat back in a few years time.

South Down: Chris Hazzard (S.F) vs Michael Savage (S.D.L.P)

With Margaret Ritchie announcing that she wouldn’t stand again, Up stepped Michael Savage, local S.D.L.P councillor and he didn’t disappoint. although he only lost by 2,000, he has done very well for his first time and I expect bigger things from him in the future. Chris Hazzard was re-elected as M.P for South Down.

What Next? Chris Hazzard (S.F) is pretty popular in his local constituency and he won’t fail to deliver again for another few years.

Future Prediction? Michael Savage (S.D.L.P) has some potential and they will be working very hard and targeting this seat in the future elections.

Strangford : Jim Shannon (D.U.P) Territory

Jim Shannon (D.U.P) was re-elected as the M.P for Strangford. There was no upsets this time and Alliance increased their vote immensely.

What Next? Jim Shannon (D.U.P) will continue where he left off and will try to make Strangford a better place all round.

Future Prediction? Worth playing alliance at a fair price. (20-1 or above).

Upper Bann (Bookies Won’t Make That Mistake Again)

Carla Lockhart (D.U.P) is a devoted young mother and passionate politician with a fair amount of potential. She was elected as the the M.P for Upper Bann with an 8,000 majority. The bookmakers priced her at 1-5 (should have been 1-50), they won’t make that mistake again.

What next? I actually like Carla and wish her well in her new role. I think she has what it takes. She has been a victim of trolling and social media abuse.

Future Prediction? she’ll be re-elected if she stays around, perhaps with an even bigger majority.

West Tyrone (Die Hard Sinn Fein Area)

It was no different this time and Orfhlaith Begley (Sinn Fein) was re-elected to West Tyrone. I wish her success for the next few years.

What Next? Orfhlaith will continue to serve as the Sinn Fein M.P for West Tyrone. She is very popular and well liked in that part of the world.

Future Prediction? S.F will win with an increased majority.

General Election Review

It was a great election all round and instead of two parties representing the Northern Irish people, We now have four out of the five main parties elected. It’s a shame Tom Elliott didn’t get a seat. It would have been nice to see all five parties elected but that’s life. There’s always next time.

The Green Machine

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