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Betting opens on Beaconsfield which almost certainly will be one of the top constituency markets at the general election

7/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 603 Comments

Ladbrokes make it CON 5/6: Grieve 5/6 The news at the weekend that the Liberal Democrats have decided to stand aside in the Beaconsfield constituency at the general election in order to give the incumbent MP, Dominic Grieve, a clear run has inevitably set off a betting market which looks likely to be a big one. Grieve, the former Attorney-General, has played a big part in opposing Johnson’s plans for Brexit for which he was booted out of the Conservative…

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“National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy” – a review

6/10/2019 TSE Comments 264 Comments

INTRODUCTION The book is an overview of “National Populism”, the umbrella term the authors use to describe a political stance of increasing electoral salience in Europe and North America, familiar to us as an explanation for Brexit and Trump. The authors are Roger Eatwell of Bath University and Matthew Goodwin of the University and Kent: both are experts in academic study of the right and all its flavours. The book is a summary of their academic studies, expanded into a…

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My 500/1 tip might just turn out be a winner

6/10/2019 TSE Comments 285 Comments

The Commons Speaker has emerged as the new favourite in the race to take over from Boris Johnson if there is a vote of no confidence https://t.co/GmJh5ergIV — Times Politics (@timespolitics) October 6, 2019 This morning’s Sunday Times is reporting John Bercow has been proposed for the role of Britain’s caretaker prime minister, as opposition parties plot to sidestep Jeremy Corbyn and form a “government of national unity” composed entirely of prominent backbenchers. The Commons Speaker has emerged as the new…

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Will Dominic Cummings still be senior adviser to Boris Johnson on New Year’s Day?

6/10/2019 TSE Comments 222 Comments

Will the PM have more Cummings or goings? This market by Paddy Power on Boris Johnson’s adviser Dominic Cummings should attract a lot of attention given the prominence of Mr Cummings and his publicity shy nature that can only be rivalled by Paddy Power. It is understandable why No is favourite in this market, during the summer it was reported that Mr Cummings also suggested that he may leave his role after Britain exits the European Union on October 31….

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In the year of general election betting punters continue to make 2019 odds on favourite but not the near certainty that it was

5/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 473 Comments

Chart by Betdata.io We are now in October and we know that the law lays down that there has to be 25 working days between an election being called and polling day so if one is to take place this year the options are running out. This month sees, of course, the Article 50 deadline and the court case in Scotland that seeks to ensure that a letter seeking an extension under the Benn act is actually sent if Johnson…

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The curious incident of the ERG at Christmas 2017

5/10/2019 David Herdson Comments 398 Comments

Congratulations to PM for her determination in getting today’s deal. We now aim to forge a deep and special partnership with our European friends and allies while remaining true to the referendum result – taking back control of our laws, money and borders for the whole of the UK. — Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 8, 2017 Johnson Tweet from December 2017 The dozy reaction to the Joint Report has misframed Brexit ever since Why does a dog not bark when…

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Failed CON leadership contender, Rory Stewart, to fight for the London Mayoralty as an independent

4/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 806 Comments

Has he bitten off more than he can chew? There has been a big shake up in the betting for the 2020 London Mayoral race following the announcement this morning that the former Tory cabinet minister and failed leadership contender, Rory Stewart, has decided to enter the race. This came after he announced that he would not be standing again at the General Election for his Penrith seat. Stewart has quickly moved into second place in the betting while the…

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Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU by the end of the month at 26%

4/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 635 Comments

But read the detailed betting rules The big Brexit betting market as seen above in the betdata.io chart is whether Johnson will achieve his objective of an October 31st exit as per the Article 50 deadline. Like in all political bets it is important to read Betfair’s detailed rules of the market which in this case are: “For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply…

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