We have not had a poll of LAB members since last July so the YouGov chart above is based on the latest data available. Since then, of course, three of those senior party figures tested by the firm are no longer possible runners. Tom Watson has quit being an MP, Laura Pidcock lost her seat at on December 12th while John McDonnell has made his intentions clear.
Note that in the polling each potential leader was tested separately but it does give a feel for the left-right split that is likely to exist. If it comes down to Starmer versus Long-Bailey then you would assume that the former would get the backing of Watson and Thornberry with Pidcock and McDonnell supporters going to Long-Bailey.
We also don’t know what impact the campaign will have with the big unions most likely putting their weight behind Long-Bailey.
Another finding from the July poll that might be a pointer is that when the sample was asked “Do you think that Jeremy Corbyn is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour Party?” 56% said Well and 43% said badly.
To another question “How likely or unlikely do you think it is that Labour would win the next General Election if the party leaders were Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson?” 56% responded likely and 32% unlikely.
That was six months ago and since then the party has experienced its worst general election outcome since 1935. Maybe the experience of that terrible defeat will make perceived electability the key quality members will be looking for?
I’m hoping that we will see some new YouGov LAB members’ polling in the near future.
I am refraining from betting on this election until after January 6th when the party’s NEC will decide on the rules for the election. This could rule out Starmer.
- Note. PB’s server has been updated overnight thanks again to my son Robert who keeps PB going.