Henry G Manson resurfaces after 4 years and says Lisa Nandy is a good bet at current odds

Henry G Manson resurfaces after 4 years and says Lisa Nandy is a good bet at current odds

Comments 0 Comment

Those who have followed PB for four years and more will remember some of the tips from Labour insider, Henry G Manson, and I am amongst a number who have benefitted from them. The big news is that Henry G gas resurfaced with this post on the previous thread: Happy New Year. There has been a bit market reaction to the early YouGov poll which has created value elsewhere. At this stage of a leadership contest you have to weigh…

Read More Read More

Starmer now firm odds-on favourite to succeed Corbyn

Starmer now firm odds-on favourite to succeed Corbyn

Comments 0 Comment

Inevitably the YouGov poll of Labour members that came out last night has had a big impact on the the Corbyn succession betting. That the former Director of Public Prosecutions who has only been MP since 2015 has such a clear leading the poll is impacting on the betting and it is hard seeing him being beaten. Inevitably as well there has been the criticism of YouGov from some factions on the left who persistently criticise the firm. I think…

Read More Read More

Starmer takes clear lead in first YouGov members’ poll of LAB leadership election

Starmer takes clear lead in first YouGov members’ poll of LAB leadership election

Comments 0 Comment

Starmer takes lead in race to become new Labour leader – poll https://t.co/DH2rmYGGlM — Sky News Politics (@SkyNewsPolitics) January 1, 2020 Amongst first preferences the poll has: 31% Starmer 20% Long-Bailey 11% Phillips 7% Cooper 6 Lewis 6% Thornberry 5% Nandy Assuming it came to just Starmer versus Long-Bailey poll has Starmer on 61% to Long-Bailey’s 39%. In the last two leadership elections the membership gave Corbyn a clear lead. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

2019 – The year of blessings in disguise?

2019 – The year of blessings in disguise?

Comments 0 Comment

A guest slot from Fishing 2019 was obviously a very turbulent year in British politics.  Individuals, parties and the political system itself were tested almost to destruction.  But sometimes events that appear a disaster at the time can, with a decade or two’s hindsight, seem like a triumph.  The Conservatives losing the 1945 election, for example, gave the Labour Party the responsibility for post-war austerity and allowed the Tories to regenerate in opposition.  They then dominated the 1950s and early 1960s.  Again, for Labour, 1992…

Read More Read More

As the New Year begins Stodge asks “Is Britain Now a One-Party State?”

As the New Year begins Stodge asks “Is Britain Now a One-Party State?”

Comments 0 Comment

After the 1992 General Election, the fourth consecutive Conservative victory, the Times, in its wonderful statistical summary, described the Conservatives as “the natural Party of Government” and Labour as “the natural Party of Opposition”. Despite a poor economic outlook and 13 years of Government, John Major surprised the polls and most pundits by coming home victorious. In the aftermath, there were those who believed somehow the electoral laws had been overcome and the Conservatives could and indeed would never lose…

Read More Read More

The big development in the Democratic nomination betting is the rise and rise of Bernie

The big development in the Democratic nomination betting is the rise and rise of Bernie

Comments 0 Comment

With all the focus on the GE2019 aftermath we haven’t paid much attention to what will almost certainly be the biggest political betting event of 2020 – the White House Race. At the moment, five and a half weeks before the Iowa caucuses the main activity has been on the Democratic nomination battle. Iowa is the state that is the first to decide and generally has a big impact on shaping how the race will go in the states that…

Read More Read More

On the LAB leadership betting markets Starmer and Long-Bailey continue to dominate

On the LAB leadership betting markets Starmer and Long-Bailey continue to dominate

Comments 0 Comment

Chart of Betfair exchange price movements from Betdata.io It is now two and a half weeks since Corbyn announced his intention of standing down and although quite a number of names have been mentioned as a possible successors it is Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Bailey who continue to attract the attention of punters. The “race” is expected to start formally next week when the party’s NEC meets and the rules for the contest agreed. A big challenge of all…

Read More Read More