How the Iowa Democratic caucuses at WH2004 were the trigger for the establishment of PB

How the Iowa Democratic caucuses at WH2004 were the trigger for the establishment of PB

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In January 2004 the former governor of Vermont, Howard Dean, looked as though he might make it right through to the nomination. He had been a big pioneer of utilising the internet for online donations and mobilising volunteers something that was quite new at the time. In the polls ahead of Iowa, then like now the first state to decide, he looked strong and was tight favourite, at one stage odds-on in the betting, for the nomination. At the time…

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Which way will the Brexit trackers go after Friday?

Which way will the Brexit trackers go after Friday?

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With “Brexit wrong” retaining its lead Johnson’s got to be careful about his tone on Friday Today’s YouGov poll will probably be the last one before Britain leaves the EU on Friday evening. I do hope that the firm will continue its regular Brexit tracker question which has been put in the same way since the referendum in June 2016 . As can be seen those thinking that Brexit is wrong are leading a situation that has existed for nearly…

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YouGov’s first post GE2019 poll has the Tories 20% ahead

YouGov’s first post GE2019 poll has the Tories 20% ahead

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Something like this could provide the starting numbers for Starmer’s leadership Clearly these are really excellent numbers for Johnson but partly this is explained by the almost total lack of opposition. The biggest battle that Johnson’s had to fight has been with his on party on his plans for Huawei. For a party to extend its polling lead in the aftermath of a stonking general election victory has been seen before and will be seen again. It will take time…

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Another week starts and Thornberry continues to struggle finding CLPs to back her

Another week starts and Thornberry continues to struggle finding CLPs to back her

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Keir Starmer: 44 Rebecca Long-Bailey: 18 Lisa Nandy: 10 Emily Thornberry: 3 As can be seen the shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, continues to find the going tough in her effort to get on the members’ ballot. She needs 33 constituency parties but following her early rush she remains stuck on three. . It had been thought that following the success of Nandy, Long-Bailey and Starmer in getting over the line then constituency parties might look at her position more…

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Warren and Klobuchar get key newspaper endorsements Iowa and New Hampshire

Warren and Klobuchar get key newspaper endorsements Iowa and New Hampshire

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But Bernie and Biden still top the polling and betting The weekend has seen the leading papers in first two states to decide give their backing to Senators Warren and Klobuchar. In Iowa its the Des Moines Register that is going for Warren while in New Hampshire the Union Leader goes for Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Historically this does matter and according to Fivethirtyeight the DMR’s backing has been worth an average boost of 4% in previous races. My guess is…

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Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review, Part One

Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review, Part One

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Last week, Leo Varadkar called an early Dáil Election. Will his choice backfire or will he get another term? Find out below. Michael Martin (Fianna Fáil) has been putting the pressure on few quite some time, Fine Gael only won by a handful of seats last time (2016 election) and Leo is now starting to feel the heat. Leo has made a handful of school boy errors and according to the recent polls, Michael Martin should be elected as the…

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Covered market: the politics of towns

Covered market: the politics of towns

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Since the election, talk of towns has been the talk of the political town.  Labour politicians and Conservative politicians alike have concluded that is the key to political success right now. This apparent unity conceals a string of latent ambiguities and confusions.  What are towns? The Conservatives were mocked when they recently launched their Town Of The Year competition in Wolverhampton, which has been a city for nearly 20 years.  The optics could certainly have been better. Lisa Nandy has…

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