In the South Carolina betting Bernie moves from a 57.5% chance to a 14% one in less than 5 days

In the South Carolina betting Bernie moves from a 57.5% chance to a 14% one in less than 5 days

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Biden looks set to be heading for victory in the state that was his firewall With the South Carolina primary taking place on Saturday there have been three new polls today all of them showing ex-VP Joe Biden with a clear lead. One poll has him 20% ahead of Bernie Sanders, another one 16% while a final one has the gap just at 4% Whatever there is no good poll for Sanders and and the signs are that the state…

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Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown – now being talked about as a compromise Dem candidate at a brokered convention

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown – now being talked about as a compromise Dem candidate at a brokered convention

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My 250/1 bet today In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election. (Today’s New York Times) A year ago, when the race for the White House in this year’s presidential…

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Almost all the front pages are about the virus

Almost all the front pages are about the virus

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Is now the time to panic? This is probably the first big test for the Johnson government. How to handle the growing concern about the virus which is sweeping many parts of the world. So far this has been less in UK than in some other European countries particularly Italy. But we live in a world where people do travel and interact and things can happen so fast. It is starting to impact on things like the Rugby Six Nations…

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Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round

Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round

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It’s been reported this evening that a new YouGov/LAB selectorate poll for Sky Nws has: Starmer 53% Long-Bailey 31% Nandy 16% A total of 1,323 party members/supporters/affiliates were interviewed from Feb 15-Feb 20th. Under Labour’s election rules if no candidate has 50%+ on first choices then the second choices of the contender with the fewest votes are added to the totals. So if Starmer does indeed get 53% that would obviate the need for second preferences to be taken into…

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Starmer looks set for victory but the campaign has told us little about what he stands for

Starmer looks set for victory but the campaign has told us little about what he stands for

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Remaining loyal to Corbyn without attacking Blair has been quite an achievement Ever since the first YouGov LAB membership poll at the end of December there has been little doubt that Sir Keir Starmer was likely to be the winner. The ballot forms of being distributed and are now being returned and you can expect maybe half of them to have arrived within the next week. To recap Starmer topped the MP nomination stage and then had little problems in…

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The Charleston debate: The betting verdict

The Charleston debate: The betting verdict

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The betdata.io chart of the Betfair exchange shows how punters responded to the latest debate. The betting loser was Bernie who was a 53% chance yesterday morning and is now a 43% one. The big gainer was Biden who had his best debate performance so far in a state, South Carolina, that votes on Saturday and he has made his firewall. Bloomberg was only slightly better than last week but he has edged up in the betting. This was the…

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Yet another Dem TV Debate and this time Bernie’s expected to be in the firing line

Yet another Dem TV Debate and this time Bernie’s expected to be in the firing line

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Ahead of Saturday’s South Carolina primary we have yet another TV debate between the main contenders. This takes place in Charleston and will start at 1am GMT lasting two hours. As discussed in a previous thread today the expectation is that the front runner in the race, Bernie Sanders, will be the one who will will be most under attack because so far he has escaped the debates unscathed and there have always been other contenders who looked most vulnerable….

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