Can anyone stop Sanders – looking at the contenders one by one?
Bernie Sanders is rightly the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. RIght now he leads in national polling, delegates, popular votes cast and has gone 3 out of 3 (Including a blowout delegate win in broadly representative Nevada) for states that have thus far cast their votes. Who can challenge him though ? Examining the candidates officially still in the race and those with odds of less than 1000.0 on Betfair. So in broad order of plausibility… Tom Steyer – He…
For election junkies a great new resource from the House of Commons Library
One hundred years of UK elections I suspect many PBers are like me always wanting to check details of past elections usually in order to make a point about a current situation. Well there is a great downloadable resource just out from the Commons library which has data on UK elections going back a whole century and presenting it in an attractive way. This 96 page document is available free from here and I am sure that many of those…
In the South Carolina betting Bernie moves from a 57.5% chance to a 14% one in less than 5 days
Biden looks set to be heading for victory in the state that was his firewall With the South Carolina primary taking place on Saturday there have been three new polls today all of them showing ex-VP Joe Biden with a clear lead. One poll has him 20% ahead of Bernie Sanders, another one 16% while a final one has the gap just at 4% Whatever there is no good poll for Sanders and and the signs are that the state…
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown – now being talked about as a compromise Dem candidate at a brokered convention
My 250/1 bet today In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election. (Today’s New York Times) A year ago, when the race for the White House in this year’s presidential…
Almost all the front pages are about the virus
Is now the time to panic? This is probably the first big test for the Johnson government. How to handle the growing concern about the virus which is sweeping many parts of the world. So far this has been less in UK than in some other European countries particularly Italy. But we live in a world where people do travel and interact and things can happen so fast. It is starting to impact on things like the Rugby Six Nations…
Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round
It’s been reported this evening that a new YouGov/LAB selectorate poll for Sky Nws has: Starmer 53% Long-Bailey 31% Nandy 16% A total of 1,323 party members/supporters/affiliates were interviewed from Feb 15-Feb 20th. Under Labour’s election rules if no candidate has 50%+ on first choices then the second choices of the contender with the fewest votes are added to the totals. So if Starmer does indeed get 53% that would obviate the need for second preferences to be taken into…
Starmer looks set for victory but the campaign has told us little about what he stands for
Remaining loyal to Corbyn without attacking Blair has been quite an achievement Ever since the first YouGov LAB membership poll at the end of December there has been little doubt that Sir Keir Starmer was likely to be the winner. The ballot forms of being distributed and are now being returned and you can expect maybe half of them to have arrived within the next week. To recap Starmer topped the MP nomination stage and then had little problems in…