Splendid self-isolation. The lack of realism infecting British foreign policy

Splendid self-isolation. The lack of realism infecting British foreign policy

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https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1253976187887669249 Play it again Sam. The piano is battered but the tune is very familiar. This time it is China that is the focus of the hostility. It’s too big, too powerful, too inscrutable and too responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic. The John Bull tendency has decided that there must be consequences. There must be boycotts. China must be made an international pariah. The Huawei 5G contract assuredly must be ripped up. There must be a reckoning. You must remember this refrain. Those furious with China now were in…

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Can the Tories manage the lockdown endgame without alienating their key voting group – the over 70s?

Can the Tories manage the lockdown endgame without alienating their key voting group – the over 70s?

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Continued incarceration simply based on age could have an electoral price GE2017 might seem a long time ago but TMay’s government saw on that day what can happen when the oldies are hacked off. It might be recalled that there was marked decline in the numbers of over 70s actually voting following the fury over the “Dementia Tax”. The turnout change amongst the oldies was far greater than other age groups. Could the lockdown endgame produce a similar or even…

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Getting rid of the FTPA won’t be that easy

Getting rid of the FTPA won’t be that easy

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The Coalition’s constitutional legacy could last a little longer yet The classic interpretation is wrong. Britain’s constitution is not unusual because it is uncodified (or unwritten, to use the inaccurate but more frequently-used description). It is, of course, uncodified – it cannot be found in a single source – and it is, in some important aspects of convention, unwritten; and while the former is unusual, to focus there misses the crucial point and places the stress on the wrong thing….

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It’s Friday night so time for the PB Nighthawks Cafe

It’s Friday night so time for the PB Nighthawks Cafe

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Amongst all the developments during this extraordinary week the one that stands out surely is the advice by Donald Trump to inject disinfectant into people in order to combat the virus. Apparently it came just want him and hadn’t been discussed at all with other members of the the President’s advisory team. Have a good night. Mike Smithson

YouGov finds little evidence of people wanting to ease the lockdown

YouGov finds little evidence of people wanting to ease the lockdown

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So far at least, if the polling above has this right, there is no real desire amongst the public in the UK to ease some of the lockdown restrictions. Every suggestion of things being eased in the poll found the majority of respondents wanting things to stay as they are. This suggests that there’s a broad acceptance of the reasons why this is having to be done and there’s no indication there there will be any change in the immediate…

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The betting for Biden’s VP pick is getting tighter

The betting for Biden’s VP pick is getting tighter

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How his choice could impact on the Dems’ hopes of taking the Senate While we have all been focused on the pandemic there’s been some big movement in the Dems VP nomination betting with Kamala Harris sinking sharply and Warren moving up strongly., The one certainty is that Biden will choose a woman because he has made that commitment. The top three in the betting – Harris, Klobuchar and Warren – are all senators and would have to replaced if…

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And now the Thursday PB NightHawks – THE place for late evening political conversation

And now the Thursday PB NightHawks – THE place for late evening political conversation

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The big thing politically in the UK this week has been Starmer’s first time out at PMQs and this has got me pondering. We saw how Johnson’s deputy visibly relaxed yesterday after Starmer had ended his allocated six questions suggesting that this was quite an ordeal for the Foreign Secretary. I just wonder how other recent Tory PMs would have coped. My guess is that TMay would have been less phased but that Cameron would have struggled. We’ll know in…

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New polling has Biden ahead in his three “MUST WIN” WH2020 states

New polling has Biden ahead in his three “MUST WIN” WH2020 states

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Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania looking OK for the ex-VP As we saw at WH2016 the national US vote totals are irrelvant in deciding the presidency but it is what is going on in the most marginal states that will give us the best indication. So over the coming months indivdual polls from Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvsnia are going to get a lot of attntion. This morning here’ve been new Reuters/Ipsos polls in the three states and they all have Biden leading Trump…

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